宏观与大类资产周报：新增政策逐渐落地，经济环比改善-20260104

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index fell by 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively[1] - The average daily trading volume was 2.11 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase from the previous week[1] - The margin trading balance increased to 2.56 trillion yuan, although the proportion of financing purchases slightly decreased[1] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose from 49.2% to 50.1%, exceeding seasonal expectations[3] - New export orders increased from 47.6% to 49%, indicating strong export resilience[3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve due to 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and local government bond limits[3] Industry Insights - The automotive market saw retail sales of 1.928 million vehicles in December, a year-on-year decline of 17%[4] - The average wholesale price of pork rose to 17.66 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year growth rate of -21.10%[4] - Chemical sector price increases are expected to continue, particularly in organic silicon and refining[2] Funding and Investment - The net liquidity injection by the central bank was 11.71 billion yuan last week[5] - December IPO fundraising reached 31.41 billion yuan, up from 10.19 billion yuan in November[5] - Total issuance of stock and mixed funds was 23.1 billion units in December, down from 51.04 billion units in November[5] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations and uncertainties in the real estate market[6] - The upcoming U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions are critical for market sentiment[20]