工业硅：上游减产节奏仍需留意，多晶硅：1月关注上游减产情形

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the inventory has increased, and the supply is expected to be disrupted in the short - term. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the output - cut and price - support actions of upstream factories. It is expected that short - term sentiment speculation may drive up the futures price, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go short after a rebound and set a stop - profit at a low level, with the expected price range next week between 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon plants are recommended to conduct short hedging [7][8][9]. - For polysilicon, the futures price fluctuates in a range. The price - support of silicon materials is gradually transmitted to downstream sectors. The supply and demand are both weak. The market may focus on the improvement of supply - demand relationship brought by future output cuts. The bottom support of the futures price is obvious. It is expected that the price range next week will be between 55000 - 65000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from December 12, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided, with the prices of Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 in different regions remaining relatively stable during this period [11]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Sides - Supply: The weekly production of the industrial silicon industry has a slight increase. The start - up in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has increased, while that in the southwest has decreased. In December, the output decreased month - on - month due to the significant output cut in the southwest and the limited resumption of production in Xinjiang. The SMM statistics show that the social inventory has increased by 0.2 million tons, the factory inventory has increased by 0.68 million tons, and the overall industry inventory has increased by 0.88 million tons this week. Attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3]. - Cost: The cost of the southwest region in the dry season is estimated to be between 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton based on the dry - season electricity price, and the local start - up has dropped to a very low level [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly output of polysilicon has decreased month - on - month. Although some manufacturers resumed production in December, the overall monthly output did not decrease significantly, with an estimated output of 11.35 million tons. In January 2026, it is expected that silicon material manufacturers will start to cut output in an orderly manner to relieve the high - inventory problem. The current manufacturer inventory has reached 30 million tons. The average full cost is estimated to be in the range of 55000 - 56000 yuan [4]. - Demand: The weekly production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased, mainly affected by the decline in terminal demand. The silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level, which can support the firm price of silicon wafers. The price increase of silicon wafers is transmitted to downstream batteries and components. The key is the terminal acceptance of the high price of components [6]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of silicone has decreased, and some monomer plants have continued to operate at a reduced load. Since December, silicone enterprises have cut output to support prices, but the actual sustainability remains to be verified. - Demand: Considering the current off - season demand and high inventory of silicone, the logic of price - support is difficult to be realized [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers make reasonable inventory of the industrial silicon market, with high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and strong wait - and - see sentiment at other times [4]. 6. Export Market - After the advance delivery of some orders in the third quarter, the export volume in the fourth quarter has significantly shrunk, and overseas demand has not improved [4].