铅产业链周度报告-20260104

Report Overview - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Jixianfei, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: January 4, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, but considering the low inventory, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the positive spread arbitrage between futures contracts [6]. - The supply of primary lead is affected by smelter maintenance, and the supply of recycled lead is restricted by raw material shortages. The demand side is weakening marginally, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading Aspect - Price and Spread: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.14%. The closing price of LmeS-Lead 3 was 1,946.5 dollars/ton, with a decline of 2.65%. The LME lead premium decreased by 8.73 dollars/ton, and the spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased by 75 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory of lead in five regions decreased this week, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The SHFE lead inventory and LME lead inventory also showed corresponding changes [3][7]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract increased by 19,189 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,146 lots. The trading volume of LmeS-Lead 3 increased by 602 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,194 lots [7]. 2. Lead Supply - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, production, consumption, and inventory of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates also changed over time [31][32]. - Primary and Recycled Lead: The production of primary lead and recycled lead showed different trends in different years. The production of recycled lead was restricted by the tight supply of waste batteries [35][36]. 3. Lead Demand - Lead - Acid Battery: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises decreased, and the finished - product inventory days of enterprises and dealers increased. The export volume of batteries also showed different trends in different years [49]. - Terminal Consumption: The actual consumption of lead and the production of automobiles and motorcycles showed different trends in different years [51].