国泰君安期货能源化工聚烯烃周报-20260104

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on polyolefins by Guotai Junan Futures, covering plastics and polypropylene, including price, supply, demand, inventory, and other aspects [1] Plastics Section Core Viewpoint - The price of plastics is under pressure due to ample supply and weak demand. The market is expected to remain in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand before the Spring Festival, with prices under pressure. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [5] Price & Spread - The spot price increase is limited following the futures price rebound, leading to a weaker basis and a stronger 5 - 9 month spread. The import window is repaired, and the non - standard price difference is at a relatively high level [5][14][15] Supply - The total effective production capacity in 2025 increased by 16%, with domestic production increasing by 18%. The supply is ample due to low maintenance in Q4 and some restarts during holidays. Some standard products are being converted to non - standard products, and the import volume may remain high at the beginning of 2026 [5] Demand & Inventory - The demand for agricultural films is in a seasonal off - peak, and the demand for packaging films is short - term and limited. The overall downstream demand is expected to decline. The inventory removal is not smooth, and the social inventory removal is slowing down [5] Polypropylene Section Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene price is under pressure in the off - season. The supply may have marginal changes if PDH plants shut down as expected. The market is also likely to face a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, with a pessimistic outlook [91] Price & Spread - The basis is weak and volatile, and the month spread is oscillating. The import window is approaching closure, and the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited increase [91][101][105] Supply - The total effective production capacity increased by 12.7% in 2025, with an estimated annual output increase of 16.7%. The planned maintenance at the end of the year is decreasing, but there is an expectation of PDH plant shutdowns in January. The import and export volumes are expected to remain at a basic level [91] Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up is temporarily stable, but the orders for some industries are seasonally weakening. The inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory is concentrated in the middle stream, with a higher year - on - year level [91] Investment Strategy Plastics - Single - side: Oscillate weakly, short on rebounds [5] - Inter - period: Not recommended for now [5] - Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [5] Polypropylene - Single - side: Oscillate weakly, short on rebounds [91] - Inter - period: Not recommended for now [91] - Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [91]