铸造铝合金产业链周报-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and fluctuates upward, with a neutral - to - strong strength analysis. The short - term scrap - refined price difference and ADC12 - A00 price difference are strengthening. Before the holiday, the price of cast aluminum alloy remained relatively strong, reaching a high of 21,865 yuan/ton. The short - term price may show a high - level oscillation due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and weakening demand [2][6] - As of December 26, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventory decreased by 0.15 million tons to 12.91 million tons compared with the previous week. From December 1 - 28, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.928 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 23.411 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In 2026, the policy subsidy will be more targeted, benefiting mid - to - high - end cars [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Quantity and Price - The document presents data such as the price difference between different contracts, capital precipitation, trading volume, and holding volume, but no specific conclusions are drawn from these data [9] 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation (inside the warehouse receipt system), the total cost is 104 yuan/ton, including fixed costs of 14.13 yuan/ton and floating costs of 90.25 yuan/ton [12] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market's actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. The spot price is 22,000 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the warehouse receipt, including storage, handling fees, and capital costs, is 22,961.3 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][20] 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remains flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The current cost calculation of ADC12 shows a loss. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased, and the import window for cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [30][35][40] 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push phase, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. The document also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances [64]