Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that there is a game between bullish and bearish sentiments in the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy markets, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the futures prices. The profit has been restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. However, the supply side shows different trends, and the upper space of the futures prices is under pressure [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, alloy prices fluctuated widely, with the price center of manganese ferroalloy slightly rising. The profit was restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. The supply side showed new start - up and复产 phenomena, and the willingness of factories to hedge was strong, which might put pressure on the futures prices [5]. - In terms of macro - factors, China proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, and the Central Economic Work Conference released many signals for stable growth. There were no significant overseas macro - factors [5]. - Microscopically, the molten iron output increased month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials was slowly recovering. The fundamental contradictions of manganese ferroalloy continued to accumulate, and the previously shut - down silicon ferroalloy factories resumed production [5]. 2. Futures Market - The silicon ferroalloy 2603 contract fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The trading volume was 776,386 lots, and the open interest was 218,692 lots, a decrease of 27,548 lots month - on - month [8]. - The manganese ferroalloy 2603 contract also fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month. The trading volume was 700,274 lots, and the open interest was 267,767 lots, an increase of 4,188 lots month - on - month [8]. 3. Spot Market - The spot prices of silicon ferroalloy in major regions of the country oscillated and increased this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferroalloy in the main production areas was 5,220 - 5,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 20 - 80 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon - manganese alloy in major regions of the country was 5,520 - 5,870 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 10 - 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 6517 - type silicon - manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton) [9]. 4. Manganese Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of manganese ferroalloy was 19.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 tons (a change rate of + 0.6%). The weekly operating rate was 36.89%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points month - on - month [12]. - Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [13]. Demand - A new round of steel procurement is about to start, and steel mills may start the inventory replenishment process [18]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons, which provided weak support for the demand of manganese ferroalloy [20]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 393,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,500 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 23,518, a month - on - month increase of 241, equivalent to an increase of 1,205 tons, and the converted inventory was 117,590 tons [27]. - In December, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with different trends in different regions [27]. Raw Materials - The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply and demand of manganese ore were in a weak balance. The departure volume from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased [31]. - The arrival and clearance of manganese ore at ports decreased, but the supply and demand might still maintain a relative balance [38]. - Overseas mining enterprises raised their quotations, and the port prices were closely related to the high clearance demand. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [44][45]. Profit - The cost center gradually moved up with the increase in ore prices, the futures prices were strong, and the profit of manganese ferroalloy increased with the futures prices [47]. 5. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of silicon ferroalloy was 9.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 tons. The weekly operating rate was 29.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month. Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [51][52]. Demand - The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei increased month - on - month, and the raw material inventory replenishment process might start [56]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons [66]. - In terms of non - steel demand, the total output of magnesium metal in December was 8.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 17.9%. The output of stainless - steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [66]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 64,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 750 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 11,491, a month - on - month decrease of 391, equivalent to a decrease of 1,955 tons, and the converted inventory was 57,455 tons [67][68]. - In December, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with different trends in different regions [69]. Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy increased with the futures prices, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit restoration on the original operating rhythm of factories [76].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告：硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20260104
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-04 08:44