碳酸锂：基本面季节性走弱，远期需求向好逻辑强化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are seasonally weak in the short - term, but the logic of positive long - term demand is strengthened. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock, with the upper limit of the price range moving down. The expected positive demand provides support for the lithium salt price [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures contracts saw a high - level correction. The 2601 contract closed at 120,000 yuan/ton, down 7,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2605 contract closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, down 8,940 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 6,600 yuan/ton week - on - week to 118,500 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2601 contract) rose 14,400 yuan/ton to - 1,500 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was - 1,740 yuan/ton, strengthening 290 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2601 - 2605 contract spread was - 1,580 yuan/ton, strengthening 1,140 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Policy: In 2026, the car trade - in policy was issued. For scrapping old cars and buying new energy vehicles, a subsidy of 12% of the new car's sales price is given, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan; for replacing with new energy vehicles, an 8% subsidy of the new car's sales price is given, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan [2] - Supply: The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production was 22,420 tons, a slight increase of 259 tons from last week. In terms of raw materials, the spot inventory of lithium ore has arrived at ports one after another, and the spot inventory at ports of traders has increased slightly [2] - Demand: Recently, many cathode material manufacturers have announced maintenance. If the maintenance is carried out as planned, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathodes in January will decrease by 13.2% month - on - month, and that of ternary cathodes will decrease slightly by 1.3% month - on - month; the production of lithium iron phosphate cells will decrease by 4.8% month - on - month, and that of ternary cells will decrease by 9% month - on - month. At the terminal, from December 1 - 28, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 1.192 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; from December 22 - 28, the energy storage winning bids (excluding centralized procurement) were 13.7GWh, a year - on - year increase of 76% and a month - on - month increase of 30% [2] - Inventory: This week, the lithium carbonate inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week. The inventories of upstream and downstream are still decreasing, and downstream has no restocking demand. This week, 2,420 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 20,281 lots [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - The weakening signs of the fundamentals in the off - season are gradually emerging. The weekly inventory reduction speed has significantly slowed down, the number of cathode maintenance enterprises has increased, overseas ores have arrived at ports one after another, the overall supply remains at a high level, and the upward price space is limited. On the demand side, although the subsidy for mid - and low - end models in the trade - in policy has decreased, the implementation time is earlier than last year, and the market's previous pessimistic expectations for the power sector have been falsified. The energy storage shows a positive trend from the winning bid situation to the year - end rush installation, and the positive expectation logic provides strong support for the lithium salt price [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Unilateral: High - level shock, with the upper limit of the price range moving down. The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [4] - Inter - period: No recommendation [4] - Hedging: Upstream enterprises should choose the opportunity to hedge at high levels to lock in off - season profits [4]