生猪：假期表现疲弱，等待社会面情绪印证

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (12.29 - 1.4), the spot market for live pigs showed a pattern of strengthening first and then weakening. The prices of 20KG piglets in Henan and live pigs in Henan increased slightly, while the price of 50KG binary sows remained unchanged. The supply was tight due to significant reduction in group sales at the end of the month and strong reluctance of individual farmers to sell, and the demand decreased after the holiday. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the futures market, the price of live pig futures trended strongly. The LH2603 contract had a higher closing price compared to the previous week, and the basis widened [2]. - Next week (1.5 - 1.11), the spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is expected to increase continuously until March 2026 according to piglet data, and the supply pressure has not been effectively relieved. The demand has over - anticipated the market but has also advanced the speculative demand for restocking. After the New Year's Day, the demand enters a vacuum period, and enterprises have a strong willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January, putting pressure on the spot price. For the LH2603 futures contract, it is also under pressure, with a short - term support level at 11000 yuan/ton and a pressure level at 12200 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (12.29 - 1.4) - Spot Market: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan rose from 21.1 yuan/kg last week to 21.75 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 12.08 yuan/kg last week to 12.45 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows remained at 1546 yuan/head. The average slaughter weight was 124.54KG, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease [2]. - Futures Market: The LH2603 contract had a highest price of 11880 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 11670 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11795 yuan/ton (compared to 11645 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 655 yuan/ton (compared to 435 yuan/ton last week) [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (1.5 - 1.11) - Spot Market: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in a vacuum period after the holiday. Enterprises have a strong willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January, so the spot price will be under pressure [3]. - Futures Market: The LH2603 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in social sentiment. The short - term support level is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - Basis and Spread: The basis this week was 655 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 spread was - 370 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: The average weight this week was 124.54KG (compared to 124.79KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% month - on - month decrease [12].