国泰君安期货螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The combination of raw material winter storage and production restart expectations is expected to compress steel mill profits [3][5] - Overseas macro: Interest rates were cut as expected in December, releasing liquidity. Domestic macro: The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti-involution" again. The special commentator of "Qiushi" magazine aims to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations. The overall macro environment is relatively warm [5][8][9] - In the black产业链, after the festival, the capacity constraints of steel mills will ease, and with decent profits, it is expected that the molten iron output will stop falling and then fluctuate upwards. The slow destocking of hot-rolled coils restricts the overall rebound height of steel prices, so attention should be paid to the destocking speed of hot-rolled coils [5][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Threaded Steel Basis Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai threaded steel was 3300 (+10) yuan/ton, and the price of the 01 contract was 3100 (+3) yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract was 200 (+7) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was -22 (-1) yuan/ton [21] 3.1.2 Threaded Steel Demand - Second-hand housing transactions remain at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand. However, new home transactions remain at a low level, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. It is currently the traditional off-season, and demand is at a low level [22][25][26] 3.1.3 MS Weekly Data - Supply and demand are both low, and inventory is healthy. The supply and inventory of long and short processes are also presented [28][29] 3.1.4 Threaded Steel Production Profit - Last week, the spot profit of threaded steel was 173 (+7) yuan/ton, the profit of the main contract was 144 (+9) yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit of East China threaded steel was 203 (+47) yuan/ton [36] 3.2 Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Hot-Rolled Coil Basis Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3270 (0) yuan/ton, and the futures price of the 01 contract was 3221 (-67) yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract was 49 (+67) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was -49 (-54) yuan/ton [41] 3.2.2 Hot-Rolled Coil Demand - The production schedules of the home appliance and automobile industries are poor, and the demand peak season is not prosperous. After January 1st next year, the new regulations on steel exports will be implemented, with stricter standards, and export by paying for orders will be restricted [43][44] 3.2.3 MS Weekly Data - Hot-rolled coil inventory is high, and production cuts are needed for destocking [49][50] 3.2.4 Hot-Rolled Coil Production Profit - Last week, the spot profit of hot-rolled coil was -21 (-4) yuan/ton, and the profit of the main contract was 142 (-8) yuan/ton [54] 3.3 Variety Spread Structure - The spreads between different steel products such as Shanghai cold-hot spread, Shanghai coil-thread spread, Shanghai medium plate-hot coil spread, etc. are presented [56][57][59] 3.4 Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of threaded steel, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are presented [65][66][67] 3.5 Cold Roll and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The seasonal data of cold-rolled and medium plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption are presented [71]