国债期货周报-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of oscillating downward, the yield curve became steeper, and the TL contract broke below the support platform. In the medium term, due to reasons such as the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of long - and medium - term capital entry into the market, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the view of an overall oscillating and bearish trend is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating downward pattern, with the yield curve becoming steeper and the TL contract breaking below the support platform. In the medium term, due to factors like the central bank's relatively restrained monetary policy, inflation expectation change, long - and medium - term capital inflow orientation, and unfalsifiable 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is oscillating and bearish [1][3]. - The market showed a differentiated feature of short - end stability and increased long - end volatility this week. Short - end interest rates were supported by loose liquidity, while the long - end was pressured by policy expectations. After the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office proposed to implement a "more proactive fiscal policy" in 2026 on December 25th, market concerns about the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds increased. Currently, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, and the value of the ultra - long end is emerging [5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided 3.3. Seat Analysis - On December 29th, the market opening was expected to trigger a quantitative selling signal, leading to an increase in trading volume. Private funds reduced their positions intraday, intensifying the position reduction of allocation - type institutions. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of the ultra - long end is gradually emerging, and various institutions have a slight willingness to test positions intraday [10].