棉花：等待新的驱动

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term due to weak export sales data and a lack of upward drivers [5][16]. - Domestic cotton futures and spot prices are stable. Zhengzhou cotton futures are likely to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, and import profits of out - of - quota cotton [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - ICE Cotton Main - continuous Contract: Open price 64.46 cents/pound, high 64.80 cents/pound, low 63.68 cents/pound, close 64.01 cents/pound, down 0.45 cents/pound, down 0.70%, volume 75,909 lots, volume change - 7,304 lots, open interest 177,412 lots, open interest change - 2,875 lots [5]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous Contract: Open price 14,535 yuan/ton, high 14,640 yuan/ton, low 14,390 yuan/ton, close 14,585 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, volume 1,147,629 lots, volume change - 600,223 lots, open interest 860,725 lots, open interest change - 43,135 lots [5]. - Cotton Yarn Main - continuous Contract: Open price 20,595 yuan/ton, high 20,650 yuan/ton, low 20,480 yuan/ton, close 20,585 yuan/ton, unchanged, volume 36,697 lots, volume change - 23,407 lots, open interest 19,590 lots, open interest change - 3,612 lots [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: Initial rebound was weak, failed to break through 65 cents/pound, and declined in the second half of the week due to a stronger US dollar and poor weekly export sales data [5]. - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending December 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 41,400 tons, a 40% week - on - week decrease and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 33,300 tons, a 9% week - on - week increase and a 23% increase from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.4863 million tons, accounting for 57% of the annual forecast export volume; the cumulative export shipments were 640,000 tons, accounting for 43% of the total annual signed volume [6]. - Other Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries: - India: The government resumed imposing an 11% import tariff on cotton from January 1, 2026. There are concerns about reduced yarn production due to supply shortages and increased import costs [6]. - Brazil: As of December 27, the planting progress of the 2025/26 cotton season was 25.1%, an 8.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 0.1 percentage point slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage point slower than the three - year average [7]. - Pakistan: The domestic cotton market has limited trading. The daily arrival of seed cotton has dropped below 1,550 tons, and most ginneries have completed their processing for the year. The expected total production of new cotton is 1.085 - 1.124 million tons [7]. - Textile Industry Startup Rates in Southeast Asia: As of the week ending December 26, the startup rates of textile enterprises were 66.9% in India, 61.9% in Vietnam, and 65.5% in Pakistan [8]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Prices and Transactions: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices were stable in the week ending January 2. Early in the week, there were some transactions of fixed - price old cotton from the 2023/24 season and some low - basis new offers, but subsequent transactions were light. The spot sales basis changed little, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [9][10]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of December 31, there were 5,712 registered warehouse receipts and 3,527 forecast warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 9,239 lots, equivalent to 388,038 tons [10]. - Textile Enterprises: The situation of textile enterprises is not optimistic. The cotton yarn market has average trading. Due to weak downstream demand, the increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of yarn mills. Some spinning mills have reduced their startup rates, and the fabric market has few inquiries [11]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn mills' startup rates, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rates, cotton yarn profits, cotton cloth profits, cotton 5 - 9 spreads, cotton import profits, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [13][14][15]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [16]. - For Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to pay attention to market sentiment, downstream profits, and import profits of out - of - quota cotton. The discussion on the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is more suitable to be traded after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][16].