Guohai Securities·2026-01-04 08:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening in production and shipment, with downstream power plants showing an increase in daily consumption, leading to a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2][12] - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to have support due to anticipated production reductions before the Spring Festival and potential temperature drops [12][63] - The long-term trend for coal prices is upward, driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [5][66] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of December 31, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 678 RMB/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3 RMB/ton but a daily increase of 8 RMB/ton [12][63] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased by 4.85 percentage points due to increased maintenance during the New Year holiday [12][63] - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased by 39,000 tons week-on-week [12][63] - The inventory of the six major power plants decreased by 118,000 tons to 13.375 million tons, down 276,000 tons year-on-year [12][29] Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal decreased by 3.14 percentage points to 79.5% [3][64] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port decreased by 133 trucks week-on-week [3][64] - The price of main coking coal at ports remained stable at 1,740 RMB/ton as of December 31 [3][36] Coke - As of December 31, major steel mills have initiated the fourth round of price reductions for coke, indicating a weak market [3][44] - The average profit per ton of coke increased by 4 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][46] - The production rate of independent coking plants showed differentiation, with overall production rates declining slightly [3][47] Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for their stable performance and high dividends [5][66] - Other notable stocks include Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Huayuan Co. for their growth potential and strong cash flow [5][67]