玻璃纯碱周度报告：国泰君安期货能源化工-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Glass: Short - term is strong, medium - term is a volatile market. Supply contraction and demand weakness will cause price fluctuations. In 2026, it may not be a continuous decline pattern [2]. -纯碱: Medium - term is volatile and weak, short - term is strong. Supply surplus and downstream demand pressure are the main drivers of price decline, but low valuation provides support [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - There are 265 float glass production lines in the country, with 212 in operation, and the daily melting volume is 151,405 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week. The industry capacity utilization rate is 82.14%. 4 production lines were shut down and cold - repaired this week [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines is 18,630 tons/day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines is 15,010 tons/day. The potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,190 tons/day, and the potential old - line restart has a total daily melting volume of 7,930 tons. The potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting volume of 9,100 tons/day [6][7][8]. - The current in - production capacity is about 154,500 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [14]. Demand - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The orders in the northern region continue to decline, while the central and eastern regions remain stable, and the southern region shows a moderate increase [2]. Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of key monitored provincial production enterprises is 53.78 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.55 million weight boxes from last Thursday, a decline of 2.80%. The inventory days are 28.66 days, a decrease of 0.53 days from last Thursday [2]. Price and Profit - The price in Shahe is about 1,010 - 1,040 yuan/ton; in central China's Hubei region, it is about 1,020 - 1,060 yuan/ton; in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers is about 1,180 - 1,240 yuan/ton [21]. - The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, the profit of using natural gas is about - 186 yuan/ton, and the profit of using coal is about - 21 yuan/ton [29]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak, with upper pressure at 1,150 - 1,180 and lower support at 900 - 930. -跨期: Do not participate for the time being. -跨品种: Do not participate for the time being. If trading the inflation expectation factor in 2026, glass may be stronger, but there are many uncertainties in the market [2]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The market trading has weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 6.52%; the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70% [41][43]. Capacity and Inventory - There are 402 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation in the country, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, unchanged from last week. The inventory is expected to increase seasonally later [45]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - This week, the domestic soda ash production is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 81.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09% [3]. - Some soda ash plants have carried out phased maintenance and production reduction [53]. Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.34 million tons (including the external warehouse inventory of some manufacturers), of which the heavy - soda inventory is 594,000 tons [3]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in the Shahe area is 1,140 yuan/ton, and a small number of prices have increased slightly. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,140 - 1,300 yuan/ton [67][68]. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 21 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 57 yuan/ton [72]. Strategy - Unilateral: There is still pressure in the medium - term, with upper pressure at 1,250 - 1,300 and lower support at 1,080 - 1,100. -跨期: Do not participate for the time being. -跨品种: Do not participate for the time being. If trading the inflation expectation factor in 2026, glass may be stronger, but there are many uncertainties in the market [3].