美国闪击委内瑞拉，美元短期震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite remains high, with most global stock markets rising and bond yields mostly increasing. The US dollar index has risen, non - US currencies have mixed performances, gold prices have fallen, and Brent crude oil prices have increased. The US's actions in Venezuela have short - term impacts on the market, and the geopolitical situation is heating up, which will lead to continued high volatility in the global market in the future [1][9][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market This Week Overview - Market risk appetite is high. Most stock markets rise, bond yields mostly increase, and the US Treasury yield reaches 4.19%. The US dollar index rises 0.46% to 98.4. Non - US currencies have mixed performances. Gold prices fall 4.4% to $4332 per ounce, the VIX index slightly rises to 14.5, the spot commodity index falls, and Brent crude oil rises 0.9% to $60.8 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, with the US stock market falling and the A - share market slightly rising. The S&P 500 index falls 1.03%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.13%, and the Hang Seng Index rises 2.01%. The Fed's December interest - rate meeting minutes show a large divergence between doves and hawks on the prospect of interest - rate cuts. The uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts and inflation risks affect the market. The end - of - year PMI in China exceeds expectations, and the first - batch of national subsidy funds in 2026 support the stock market [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond market yields mostly increase, and the US Treasury yield reaches 4.19%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rises to 4.19%. Factors such as limited future interest - rate hike space, expected inflation recovery, and the Fed's purchase of short - term bonds cause the 10 - year US Treasury yield to be more likely to rise. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield rises to 1.855%, and the Sino - US interest - rate differential inversion slightly widens [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rises 0.46% to 98.4, and non - US currencies have mixed performances. The offshore RMB rises 0.49%, the euro falls 0.45%, the pound falls 0.3%, etc [26][28][29] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold falls 4.4% to $4332 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rises 0.93% to $60.8 per barrel. After the New Year's Day holiday, precious metals correct, and the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight may bring short - term selling pressure. The situation in Venezuela causes supply - side disturbances in oil prices, and the spot commodity index falls [30][32] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The US launches a lightning strike on Venezuela. The military action is completed quickly, which is beneficial to the Trump administration. It may lead to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index but does not change the medium - term downward trend. Geopolitical risks increase, and global market volatility will continue [34][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Event Prompts - Key events include China's December CPI, the US December non - farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, and other important data releases. Maduro may appear in court in the US on the 5th [37]