国泰君安期货美豆周度报告-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market will generally fluctuate in a bullish manner within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Price - This week, the closing price of the active contract of US soybeans was 1046 cents per bushel, a decline of 25.75 cents per bushel. The reasons were that China's purchase reached 80% of the commitment with a slower pace, and there was no large - scale drought in South America. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [8]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at 295.9 dollars per short - ton, an increase of 11.5 dollars per short - ton. The slowdown in China's purchase due to holidays and reaching 80% of the committed purchase volume raised concerns about subsequent demand [13]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil rebounded slightly, closing at 49.32 cents per pound, an increase of 0.12 cents per pound. The reasons were the stability of the oil market and soybean meal bearing the downward pressure of soybeans [17]. - As of December 26, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was 11.31 dollars per bushel, basically unchanged [20]. - As of December 26, the price of soybeans in Iowa was 9.9 dollars per bushel, a weekly increase of 0.1 [22]. - On January 2, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped by 0.47 to 135.76 reais per bag [24]. - As of January 2, the spot price of soybeans at Brazilian ports dropped by 0.48 to 142.14 reais per bag [26]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained flat, with a drought rate of 70% compared to 66% last week [29]. - In Brazil, precipitation in the southern region will be relatively high in the next two weeks, while in the central - western region it will be slightly low. The precipitation in the main producing areas will be slightly low in the next two weeks. In the second week, precipitation in Mato Grosso will be lower year - on - year, in Paraná it will be normal in the second week after being low in the first week, and in Rio Grande do Sul it will be high in the second week [31][36][39]. - In Argentina, precipitation will be low in the next two weeks, and in the next week, it will be low in the central and southern regions [46][48]. - As of the week of December 27, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was 97.9%, approaching the completion of sowing [50]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.45 dollars last week [53]. - On December 19, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 919,400 tons, up from 721,200 tons last week [55]. - On December 26, the weekly export inspection volume was 750,300 tons, down from 929,300 tons last week [57]. - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 1,055,600 tons, down from 2,396,000 tons last week (the week of December 19) [59]. - The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week [61]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China in the week of December 26 was 135,400 tons, down from 386,000 tons last week [63]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.026, remaining in the La Nina range [66]. - The cost of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise next year, and the soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US are expected to increase slightly. The US soybean planting cost continues to rise, while the Brazilian soybean cost has decreased year - on - year [68][70][72]. - As of December 23, the net long position of soybeans was 143,300 lots, down from 179,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 86,100 lots, up from 56,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 5,900 lots, compared with a net long position of 5,300 lots last week [74][76][78].