聚酯数据周报-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [15] - The cost - driven PX market has strong support, and the long - spread position should be held; the PTA market is in a high - level oscillation range with cost - driven strength and the long - spread position should be maintained; the MEG market is suitable for range operation with a weak mid - term trend and a short - spread position [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX price fluctuates and the curve near - end is flat; the 05 - 9 month spread strengthens, while the 1 - 5 spread weakens [17][19] - PXN expands due to weak naphtha demand, and the aromatics blending oil demand is weak [24][27] - The aromatics blending oil economy weakens, the PX - MX spread hits a new high, and the overseas MX isomerization economy improves [38][42][46] - The profitability of STDP units at home and abroad recovers, and the enthusiasm for starting work is restored [48] Supply and Demand, Inventory - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high. The 100 - million - ton PX device of Dalian Fujia is restarting, and the Asian overall operating rate is 79.5% (+0.6%) [53][55] - In November, PX imports were 820,000 tons, with an increase in imports from South Korea and Japan and a decline from Brunei [60] - In November, Japan's aromatics production and inventory declined; South Korea's aromatics export and inventory data show certain trends [71][78] - In November, the long - term PX monthly inventory accumulated by 50,000 tons to 4.07 million tons [85] PTA Valuation and Profit - The PTA price rises significantly, the basis rebounds steadily, the basis and month - spread of the 1 - 5 contract change, and the warehouse receipt volume decreases marginally [87][91] - The processing fee rebounds from the bottom, the overall price of the polyester chain moves up, and the downstream follow - up increase is limited [93][94] Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA operating rate stabilizes at 71 - 72%. The 2.5 - million - ton device of Xin凤鸣 Phase I and the 1.2 - million - ton device of Zhongtai Chemical are restarting [96] - In November, PTA exports were 360,000 tons, with significant increases in Egypt, Oman, and India [99] - The PTA inventory decreases marginally [114] Position - The long - position holdings of Morgan Qiankun in PTA increase, and foreign - funded seats increase their long - position holdings to 154,000 lots (+40,000 lots) [118][120] MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG month - spread declines, the basis weakens, and the single - side price trend is weak [132] - The relative valuation continues to decline, and the trend continues until active production cuts [136] - The coal - based device profit is - 217 yuan/ton (+43), and the oil - based device continues to be in a loss pattern [138] Supply and Demand, Inventory - In 2026, many MEG production projects are put into production. The domestic MEG operating rate is 72% (+2%), and the weekly supply is about 400,000 tons [128][144] - In November, MEG imports were 580,000 tons, lower than market expectations. Overseas multiple devices reduce their loads, and imports are expected to decline [146][149] - The MEG port inventory continues to rise [154] Polyester Segment Operating Rate and Inventory - The current polyester operating rate is 89.5%. The production reduction of the three major polyester filament factories is about 2.819 million tons. The polyester load in January is adjusted from 89% to 88%, and is expected to be 84% in February [161] - During the New Year's Day, the sales volume is light, and the inventory is expected to accumulate again. The equity inventory of filament (POY/FDY) is 5 - 10 days [165][171] Export and Profit - From January to November, the total polyester exports were 13.3 million tons, +14.7%. The export growth rates of various polyester products are different [173] - The losses of filament factories expand, while the profitability of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [175] Terminal: Weaving, Textiles and Apparel Operating Rate and Order - The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 60% (-2%), and the texturing machine operating rate is 79% [196] - Domestic orders weaken, and raw material inventory increases. The weaving end has weak new orders, and the坯布 inventory accumulates again [199][201] Retail and Export - From January to November, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel were 1.3597 trillion yuan, +3.5% [202] - From January to November, the cumulative export of Chinese textile and apparel was 137.8 billion US dollars, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [208] Overseas Market - The retail data of textile and apparel in the US and Europe show strong growth. The US clothing retail in January - September 2025 was 160.7 billion US dollars, +7.5% [212][214] - The UK clothing retail in January - November was 43.8 billion pounds, +6% [216] - The overseas textile and apparel inventory declines slightly month - on - month [218]