动力煤产业链周度报告-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the temporary tightening of pit - mouth supply, the prices of thermal coal at the pit - mouth and ports have stabilized and rebounded [3]. - The domestic supply contraction of thermal coal has expanded, and it is in the seasonal production - reduction period at the mine end at the end of the month [5]. - The total power coal demand shows different trends in different sectors, with a decline in metallurgical and construction coal consumption and a rapid increase in heating and other coal consumption in November [45]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal Fundamental Data - The prices of thermal coal at the pit - mouth and ports have stabilized and rebounded due to the temporary tightening of pit - mouth supply [3]. 3.2 Power Coal Supply - Domestic Supply: As of December 26, the output of 462 sample domestic mines was about 3.6428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4%, and the capacity utilization rate also decreased week - on - week. The 462 samples involve a production capacity of 2.11 billion tons, accounting for about 65% of the total production capacity of national thermal coal mines. In November 2025, the total raw coal production was 426.793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The production in Shaanxi increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [5][7][8]. - Global Supply: The total global port coal departure volume decreased slightly week - on - week, while the departure volume from Australian ports increased. The total amount of coal floating to China decreased slightly, and the amount of Australian coal increased month - on - month affected by the departure volume. As of December 26, the main arrival volume of thermal coal this week was 1.07997 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 119,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 191,390 tons [15][18][21]. 3.3 Power Coal Demand - Electricity - Related Demand: Affected by the cooling in the north, the electricity coal consumption increased week - on - week. As of December 30, 2025, in terms of electricity, the average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week totaled 6.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 140,000 tons, and the average coal supply totaled 6.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons. The average daily consumption of eight coastal provinces was 2.131 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons and a week - on - week increase of 14,000 tons. The average daily consumption of 17 inland provinces was 3.981 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 160,000 tons and a week - on - week increase of 122,000 tons. Although the average coal consumption increased slightly, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces still increased, and the inventory of power plants in 17 inland provinces was high with a slow - down in coal consumption rate [28][31][37]. - Other Demands: The blast furnace operation rate increased week - on - week, providing weak support for metallurgical demand. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly week - on - week. The chemical coal demand remained stable in the short term [26][29]. 3.4 Power Coal Demand Substitution - The total social power generation decreased, and both thermal and hydropower generation declined. The utilization of wind and water energy decreased month - on - month [39][42]. 3.5 Total Power Coal Demand In November, the coal consumption for metallurgy and construction decreased, while the coal consumption for heating and other purposes increased rapidly [45]. 3.6 Power Coal Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of sample thermal coal enterprises' mines was 303,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 351,000 tons. The inventory in northern ports increased, and the market demand for thermal coal in ports has slightly eased recently [48][51]. 3.7 Power Coal Transportation - The short - term supply - demand structure of transportation capacity remains in a loose pattern, and the outbound volume has rebounded from a low level. The thermal coal freight index fluctuates at a low level, and the upward support is limited [56][58].