合成橡胶周度报告：国泰君安期货，能源化工-20260104

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term price center of synthetic rubber is expected to move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be strong, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [2][4][7]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View 3.1.1 Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, a growth of 10,100 tons compared to December 2025. One plant is planned for maintenance in the next month, with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year. Some other plant maintenance plans may be cancelled, and a 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Dushanzi Petrochemical is planned to stop production throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost supporting the lower - end valuation [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the rigid - demand aspect, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue weak operation from December 26, 2025, to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged regular maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and the end - of - month production schedule decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, so the overall capacity utilization rate may decline slightly [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand is also high. Thus, the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. Affected by factors such as the cost boost, the expected strong market in the first and middle of January, and pre - holiday stocking, some production enterprises significantly reduced inventory, while sample trading enterprises' inventory increased [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (dynamically moving up following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually narrows [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View 3.2.1 Supply From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. Some plants were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a temporary short - stop. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises is about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of output from the Dongming Petrochemical plant [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of cis - butadiene rubber plant maintenance, the rigid - demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene is expected to remain high [9]. - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene maintains rigid - demand procurement with little change [9]. 3.2.3 Inventory From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly. The total sample inventory decreased by 0.13% month - on - month compared to last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.58% month - on - month, while the sample port inventory increased by 3.23% month - on - month. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and cis - butadiene rubber, the butadiene industry is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The weekly output and daily operating rate data of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber from 2020 to 2025 are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are also provided [47][48]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross - profit rate data of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2026 are presented [49][50][51]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export quantity data of cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2025 are presented, as well as the weekly apparent demand data from 2020 to 2026 [52][53][54]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise inventory, trade - enterprise inventory, and SHFE futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [57][59]. 3.4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand The inventory and operating - rate data of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [61][62].