国泰君安期货铂镍周报-20260104

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Neutral [3] - Palladium: Neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum and palladium have entered a consolidation period and are seeking a more rational price point to restart. The overall volatility of precious metal varieties is expected to decline next week [3][5] - The prices of Guangbo and Guangpalladium retreated significantly this week, but their fundamentals remain unchanged. The capital outflow from the precious metal sector may be due to profit - taking or pre - holiday risk - aversion. After the market sentiment was cooled, platinum and palladium will gradually find a reasonable price [5] 3. Summaries by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - Price and Volume: This week, Guangbo and Guangpalladium followed silver in a significant retreat. The main platinum contract fell 22.08% and the main palladium contract fell 15.33%. Both were heavily reduced in position, with palladium having a larger reduction. The trading volume and position of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [5][6][8] - Overseas Spot - Futures Spread: The spread between London platinum spot and NYMEX platinum main contract converged and inverted, and the spread between NYMEX platinum continuous and main contract was slightly at a discount. The spread between London palladium spot and NYMEX palladium main contract also converged [11][13] - Arbitrage Opportunities: There are profit opportunities in platinum and palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage, near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage, and import parity arbitrage [15][17][19][21][23][25] - Recycling Spread: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium declined, the recycling discounts of platinum and palladium converged to - 60 yuan/gram and - 50 yuan/gram respectively [27] - ETF Holdings: This week, platinum ETF holdings increased by 1.02 tons (about 32,700 ounces) and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.61 tons (about 19,500 ounces). The growth rate of platinum ETF holdings is rising, and that of palladium is slower but stronger than last week [29] Fundamental Aspect (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - Forward Premium/Discount Rate: In the past month, the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the platinum discount in the domestic market has risen significantly, and the palladium discount structure has returned to near - month > far - month [34] - Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio: This week, NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly to 652,800 ounces (about 20.30 tons), and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 55%. NYMEX palladium inventory continued to flow in slightly to 210,000 ounces (about 6.53 tons), and the registered warehouse receipt ratio fell to 67% [35][38] - China's Import - Export Data: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and the net inflow has slowed down. Since 2020, palladium has been in a pure import state, and the net inflow increased in November [45] - London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance: This week, the average supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was 100 kg. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was negative only for 2 days with a small absolute value [47][49]