Report Overview - Report Title: 2026 New Year's Day Holiday Market Opening Forecast Report [2] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [3] - Research Institution: Green大华 Futures Research Institute [3] 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The stock index market is expected to have a good start on the first trading day after the New Year's Day holiday, with overseas capital accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets and funds expected to enter the market quickly. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - Precious metals are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [6]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, different varieties have different trends, such as the overall bearish trend of oils, the bottom - oscillating pattern of double - meal, the long - term bearish view of sugar and jujubes, and different support and resistance levels for other varieties [16][17][18][19]. - In the energy and chemical market, the long - term crude oil price may be under bearish pressure, while methanol, urea, bottle chips, and pure benzene are recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset, and the rubber system can be observed or a small number of BR call options can be held [34][35][36][37]. - In the steel market, it is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried; iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline, and short positions can be pre - arranged; for coking coal and coke, it is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently [55][56][57]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, regional supply shortages will push up copper prices to some extent; aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate around certain prices after the holiday [71][72][73][74]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index - On January 2, the Hong Kong stock market opened, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.7% and the Hang Seng Technology Index soaring 4%, indicating that overseas capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - Bullish on growth - style indexes represented by the CSI 500 index [7]. Treasury Bond - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations. The manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the central bank will adjust monetary policy according to the situation. The treasury bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom on the last trading day before the holiday [5][10]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. The CME Group raised the margin for precious metals, and geopolitical risks have increased [6][13]. Agricultural and Livestock Three Oils and Two Meals - Oils: The short - term long positions held before the holiday should be closed, and the overall trend is bearish. Palm oil has a clear bearish trend, domestic soybean oil may be somewhat resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil should be operated bearishly intraday [16][22]. - Double - meal: Affected by factors such as tightened customs policies, the collapse of overseas soybean costs, and the pressure of a bumper harvest in South America, double - meal may decline to some extent but will be supported at the previous low, showing a bottom - oscillating pattern [16]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The ICE raw sugar declined significantly during the holiday. Considering the supply pressure in the international sugar market, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to run weakly after the holiday [26]. - Jujubes: The inventory is at a high level, and the market is turning its attention to demand. The jujube futures price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the near future [26]. Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton: Affected by factors such as holiday trading volume and the strengthening of the US dollar, the ICE cotton futures declined. Considering the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices and its possible transmission to cotton prices, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current position, but the bottom support is strong [29]. - Apple: The overall trading in the apple market is dull, and the snow during the holiday has affected transportation. In the long term, the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate has not been resolved, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [29]. - Log: The supply pressure is controllable, the demand is weaker but better than the same period last year. The low inventory supports the price, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets and the cost limit the downward space. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and interval operations are recommended [29]. Corn, Pig, and Egg - Corn: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend during the holiday. The market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [31]. - Pig: The pig price weakened after the holiday. The near - month contracts are expected to open lower and then repair, and the contracts in the second half of next year may continue to oscillate [31][32]. - Egg: The egg price was stable during the holiday. The futures price is expected to open relatively stable, but the near - month contracts are expected to decline due to the pessimistic expectation of the spot price in February. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts [32]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The US intervention in Venezuela's oil production may put downward pressure on long - term oil prices. Although the current geopolitical conflict has caused a certain risk premium, the impact will be diluted by the large supply surplus [34][41]. Methanol and Urea - Methanol: With the expectation of reduced supply and increased demand, the methanol price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][44]. - Urea: The price of international fertilizers may rise due to the conflict, which may drive up China's export price. The domestic urea inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][46]. Bottle Chips and Pure Benzene - Bottle chips: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly following the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela [36][49]. - Pure benzene: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. The 03 contract reference range is 5420 - 5650 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela, the port arrival volume, and the future US dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [36][51]. Rubber System - It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of BR call options [37]. Steel Steel - Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried [55][60]. Iron Ore - The iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline. Short positions can be pre - arranged, or a strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore can be tried. The price may be supported by factors such as the increase in daily hot metal production and the expected replenishment of steel mills [56][65]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of price cuts for coke may be implemented on January 1. The coke price mainly fluctuates with the coking coal price. It is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently, and attention should be paid to the main and far - month contracts of coking coal [57][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The regional supply shortage will push up the copper price to some extent. The market's expectation of a 75BP interest rate cut in 2026 is uncertain, which may increase the volatility of the copper price [71][77]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Caustic Soda - Aluminum: The price is expected to oscillate around 21,990 yuan/ton after the holiday. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory depletion and overseas market transmission [72][80]. - Alumina: The price is expected to oscillate around 3,246 yuan/ton after the holiday, and the policy support is limited [73][80]. - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend after the holiday, and the trend is likely to be linked to the sentiment of the electrolytic aluminum industry chain [74][79].
格林大华期货2026年元旦假期开市预测报告
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-04 09:33