生猪：假期表现疲弱，等待社会情绪印证

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak this week, with the futures price trending strongly. Looking ahead to next week, the spot price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2603 contract price will continue to face pressure [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (12.29 - 1.4) - Spot Market: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.75 yuan/kg (21.1 yuan/kg last week), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.45 yuan/kg (12.08 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply was tight at the end of the month due to reduced volume from large - scale farms and strong reluctance to sell among small farmers. Demand decreased after the New Year's Day holiday. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.54KG, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease [2]. - Futures Market: The LH2603 contract of live pig futures had a high of 11,880 yuan/ton, a low of 11,670 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,795 yuan/ton (11,645 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 655 yuan/ton (435 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (1.5 - 1.11) - Spot Market: The spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is large as the overall slaughter progress in December was fast, and the supply increase was amplified before the winter solstice. After the winter solstice, the shortage of pigs in some social groups led to reluctance to sell, and the entry of secondary fattening increased the price. However, after the New Year's Day, the downstream negative feedback was obvious, and the price accelerated to decline. From the supply perspective, the supply will enter a continuous incremental stage until March 2026. From the demand perspective, the low price in October stimulated demand, and the entry of secondary fattening was continuous, but it also over - drafted the speculative demand for re - stocking. After December, the demand for curing and normal consumption increased, but after New Year's Day, it entered a demand vacuum period, and the price will continue to be under pressure [3]. - Futures Market: The price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11,795 yuan/ton on December 31. During the holiday, the supply from large - scale farms decreased, but the downstream negative feedback was strong, and the price of the spot market dropped rapidly. Pay attention to the change in social sentiment. In January, it may enter a resonance stage between large - scale farms and the social side. The current weight has just started to decline, and the change in feed data is small, indicating the start of active de - stocking. The 3 - month contract will continue to be under pressure. The short - term support level of the LH2603 contract is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,200 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - Basis and Monthly Spread: This week's basis was 655 yuan/ton; the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 370 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply Data: This week's average weight was 124.54KG (124.79KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% month - on - month increase; the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% month - on - month decrease [12].