豆粕：低位震荡，关注美豆出口与南美天气，豆一：节前政策情绪偏强，节后或震荡

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. During the week of January 2, the main March contract of US soybeans dropped 2.4%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74% [1]. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices rose first and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), it is expected that both Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices will fluctuate [1][5]. Detailed Summaries by Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals (December 29, 2025 - January 2, 2026) - Chinese purchases of US soybeans were limited, with a cumulative sales volume of approximately 36.7 tons to China and unknown destinations and 10 tons to Egypt in the week of December 29 - January 2. As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season totaled about 603 tons [1]. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1401 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47% [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 82%, behind the 93% of the same period last year, gradually approaching the end [1]. - According to the January 2 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and temperatures will be "low first and then high"; in Argentina, precipitation will be less (improving from January 8), and temperatures will be low [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Trading volume increased week - on - week. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 20 tons, compared with about 16 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up volume decreased slightly week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 18.2 tons, compared with about 18.3 tons in the previous week [3]. - The basis increased slightly week - on - week. The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - Inventory increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 103 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [3]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Soybean prices were stable and slightly stronger. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions increased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, remained flat in some inland areas, and the sales price in the sales areas of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, the planned auction volume was about 19 tons, the actual transaction volume was about 15.59 tons, the reserve price was 3950 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 4014 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, but attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. As the Spring Festival approached, there was restocking demand in all market segments, and prices may rise [4]. Post - holiday Forecast (January 5 - 9, 2026) - For soybean meal, pay attention to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, weekly US soybean export sales reports) and South American weather [5]. - For soybeans, due to the strong pre - holiday policy sentiment but the weak external soybean market, it is expected that the domestic futures market will fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise. Pay attention to the subsequent state - reserve release [5].