多头获利了结，贵金属高位回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals experienced a decline after reaching high levels, with silver showing significant volatility. The short - term short - squeeze in silver ended, and exchanges took measures to cool the market, leading to profit - taking by long - position holders. The upcoming adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight will bring short - term selling pressure to precious metals, but the long - term trend remains unchanged [1] - From a fundamental perspective, the upcoming US December non - farm payroll report is crucial. The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the inflation center has risen, limiting the scope of interest rate cuts. The Fed will conduct RMPs to maintain liquidity, reducing the probability of liquidity shortages but not leading to large - scale monetary easing. Short - term continuous rise of precious metals is difficult. The arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro will increase short - term market volatility [2] - Short - term gold prices face a certain risk of correction, and the overall volatility of precious metals needs to be reduced. It is recommended to wait for the correction before making long - position allocations [3] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) decreased by 57.7% week - on - week, and the internal - external futures price difference increased by 135.5% week - on - week. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased slightly by 0.0%, and the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.58%. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 0.56%, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 2.5%. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 1.2%, the US dollar index increased by 0.43%, the SOFR increased by 5.7%, the US 10 - year break - even interest rate increased by 1.54%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.0%, the VIX volatility index increased by 6.7%, the gold cross - market arbitrage trading increased by 1.3%, and the US 10 - year real interest rate increased by 1.5% [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.87%, oil prices rose by 0.9%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.26%. The US dollar index rose by 0.4%, the US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.19%, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.03%, and the VIX index rose slightly to 14.5 [14][16] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.03%. Developing country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13%. The real interest rate rose slightly to 1.93%, and the gold price fell by 4.4%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index rose by 0.41%. US and German bonds rebounded, with a US - German interest rate spread of 1.29%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.53%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.06%. The euro depreciated by 0.45%, the pound depreciated by 0.3%, the yen depreciated by 0.17%, the Swiss franc depreciated by 0.37%, and the US dollar index rose by 0.46% to 98.4, with non - US currencies showing mixed performance [19][20][26] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data and the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly decreased to 1065 tons. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded to 59 [32][34] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - On Monday, Maduro may appear in the US New York Federal Court, and the US December ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. On Tuesday, the US "Tech Spring Festival Gala" will be held. On Wednesday, the US December ADP new employment and ISM non - manufacturing PMI will be released. On Thursday, the US weekly initial jobless claims will be announced. On Friday, China's December CPI, the US December non - farm payrolls, and the January University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [35]