Group 1: Manufacturing Trends - The manufacturing PMI in China has stabilized around 49.7, while the US PMI hovers around 48.0, indicating a lack of significant cyclical peaks or troughs, reflecting a "weak resilience" state[9] - China's real estate sector is undergoing adjustments, with targeted fiscal policies supporting demand, leading to a balanced demand environment[9] - Global supply chain diversification is enhancing export resilience, preventing typical inventory destocking in manufacturing[9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The expected GDP growth for January is projected at 4.66% (actual) and 3.86% (nominal), compared to December's 4.18% and 3.79%[4] - The PPI is anticipated to continue rising due to low base effects, while CPI is expected to decline due to high base effects[4] - The M1 growth rate may slow down due to high base effects and reduced fiscal net spending[4] Group 3: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index saw single-day gains of 2.76%, 4.00%, and 4.38% respectively on the first trading day of the year[4] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares increased to 21,000 million yuan, up 8.30% week-on-week[19] - The gold ETF in China experienced a net outflow of 3.205 billion yuan, while the SPDR global gold ETF saw a net outflow of 6 tons[36]
宏观周度述评系列：中美制造业为何呈现周期熨平特征-20260104
GF SECURITIES·2026-01-04 10:05