有色金属大宗商品周报（2025/12/29-2026/1/2）：需求预期或上调，铝价强势突破创新高-20260104

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Demand expectations for aluminum have been raised, leading to a strong breakthrough in aluminum prices [3] - Copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations after breaking historical highs, with significant inventory accumulation in domestic markets [5] - The lithium sector is entering an upward price cycle driven by strong demand, despite being in the off-season [79] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [91] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - China's manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations at 50.1, compared to the forecast of 49.2 [8] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 were lower than expected at 199,000 [8] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.46, while the PB_LF is 3.51, indicating a premium over the broader market [20] Copper - London copper prices increased by 2.39%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.49% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant increase of 30.11%, while London copper inventory decreased by 7.45% [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 1.79%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.59% [37] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises increased by 7.18% to 6,862 CNY/ton [37] Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices rose by 5.90% to 118,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 3.89% to 1,548 USD/ton [79] - The lithium sector is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a price increase [79] Cobalt - MB cobalt prices rose by 1.53% to 24.88 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices increased by 10.11% to 490,000 CNY/ton [91] - Domestic smelting margins for cobalt increased by 74.85% to 96,700 CNY/ton [91]