多晶硅：1月关注上游减产情形：工业硅：上游减产节奏仍需留意

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply has disturbance expectations. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut and price - support actions of upstream factories. It is expected that short - term emotional speculation may drive up the market, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels after a rebound and set a stop - profit at low levels, with the expected price range next week being 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct short - hedging [7][8][9] - The polysilicon market is in a state of high - level shock. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut situation of silicon material manufacturers in January. The market may focus on the improvement of supply - demand relationship brought about by production cuts. The expected price range next week is 55000 - 65000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from December 15, 2025, to December 31, 2025, including Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [11] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: In the short term, the weekly production of industrial silicon has a slight month - on - month increase. The start - up in the southwest region has decreased due to the dry season, and the cost in the dry season is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton. In December, the production reduction in the southwest increased, and although some factories in Xinjiang resumed production, the overall production in December decreased month - on - month. The factories in Xinjiang also have heat - preservation measures, which marginally reduce the short - term supply [3] - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.68 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.88 million tons. The current social inventory is 55.7 million tons, and the factory inventory is 20.2 million tons [3][12] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production of polysilicon decreased month - on - month. In December, some manufacturers reduced production, but some also resumed production, with an estimated monthly output of 11.35 million tons. In January 2026, manufacturers are expected to cut production in an orderly manner to relieve high inventory. The current inventory of manufacturers has reached 30 million tons [4] - Demand: The weekly production scheduling of silicon wafers decreased month - on - month. In December, the production scheduling decreased due to the decline in terminal demand. The current silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level, which supports the firm price of silicon wafers and is transmitted to the prices of downstream batteries and components [6] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of silicone decreased this week, and some monomer plants continued to operate at a reduced load. Since December, silicone enterprises have cut production to support prices, but the actual sustainability remains to be verified [4] - Demand: Currently, it is the off - season for demand, and the silicone inventory is relatively high. The logic of price - support is difficult to be realized [4] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers make reasonable stockpiling of the industrial silicon market, with high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and strong wait - and - see sentiment at other times [4]