BZ处于区间上沿，关注逢高空的机会：BZ&Eb周报-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The current valuation is high, at the upper end of the range, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities starting next week [2][77]. - In the short - term, the market valuation is high. Due to factors such as styrene's export increase in January, Bohua device maintenance, and the re - mention of anti - involution, the prices of pure benzene and styrene rebounded rapidly. Currently, pure benzene is at the upper end of the range, and styrene's valuation is significantly high, with a risk - free arbitrage window open. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [2][77]. - In the medium - term, PX - BZ should take short - term profit, the overseas oil - blending drive is weakening, and the domestic chemical fundamentals maintain high inventory pressure [2][77]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In December, 110,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, the maintenance volume remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a 45,000 - ton reduction due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their loads after solving quota problems. In January, attention should be paid to the incremental pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang project [2][75]. - Pure benzene imports: The external market pressure remains high. South Korea's pure benzene selling pressure was high from November to December, and imports remain high. In January, there are significant differences in import expectations, with an expected high import volume of about 450,000 tons, and the imports after February are to be evaluated [2][75]. - Styrene: In December, 85,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 65,000 tons were under maintenance. After December, the device operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the incremental production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's device [2][75]. Demand - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. In December, 40,000 tons of maintenance are expected, and in January, 60,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the devices [2][75]. - Phenol: The operation is gradually picking up. In December, 30,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 10,000 tons. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new device may be postponed [2][75]. - Aniline: In December, 70,000 tons were under maintenance, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some devices extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [2][76]. - Styrene downstream 3S hard plastics: Terminal home appliances are gradually entering the year - end procurement season, and demand has slightly recovered. However, 3S still faces high - inventory problems [2][76]. Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [2][77]. - EB processing fee: The profit will expand in the short - term [2][77]. Strategy - Single - side: Pay attention to shorting opportunities for BZ [2][77]. - Inter - period: None for now [77]. - Cross - variety: Take short - term profit for PX - BZ [2][77].