半导体主线逐步确立，维持逢低配置思路

Investment Focus - The A-share market is expected to attempt another upward move, with Hong Kong equities likely to follow, but further upside in A-shares will face resistance near annual highs without a significant increase in trading volume [1][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the ChiNext Index declined by 1.3%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.3% [1][8] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is emerging as a core theme, with capital rotating towards this sector due to rising prices and demand, particularly for H200 chips in China [2][9] - Domestic capital market activities around self-sufficiency in semiconductors have accelerated, with notable IPO applications and stock price increases, enhancing risk appetite for Hong Kong equities as a financing venue for hard technology [2][9] Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, exceeding expectations of 49.2, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2, indicating synchronized improvement in manufacturing production and demand [3][12] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has initiated significant infrastructure projects with total investments exceeding RMB400 billion, reinforcing the stabilizing role of infrastructure spending [3][12] Policy Developments - The NDRC released the 2026 "Two New" policy framework with an initial allocation of RMB62.5 billion, indicating a slight decrease in overall scale compared to last year but an earlier rollout [3][12] - Recent articles emphasize the need for decisive policy measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on a transition to an integrated development model and unlocking demand potential [3][12] Market Dynamics - Speculative activity remains active in A-shares, with significant capital concentration in the commercial aerospace sector, although the profit-making effect has not sustainably lifted the broader index [4][11] - In Hong Kong, southbound funds recorded a net outflow of HKD3.8 billion, with a slowdown in buying momentum for internet stocks and increased allocation to financials [4][16] Investment Strategy - The report suggests continuing to accumulate positions in domestic computing power themes, which are central to the investment strategy and are expected to transition into a primary uptrend [5][14] - With rising policy expectations for consumption and property sectors, these segments are seen as having catch-up potential and warrant attention for tactical allocation opportunities [5][14]