电解铝期货品种周报-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pattern of the electrolytic aluminum market remains bullish in the medium - term, with a high - level oscillation expected in January. The macro - sentiment is the dominant factor. Supply constraints are formed by technological transformation in Xinjiang and power rationing during the dry season in Yunnan, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level year - on - year and is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term. Although the demand in downstream new - energy vehicle and photovoltaic fields is growing rapidly, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure of the off - season, and the market is mainly for replenishing essential supplies. [5] - In the short term, it is advisable to exit the market and wait and see for short - term long positions, while continue to hold medium - term long positions. Spot enterprises are advised to hold sufficient spot inventories for hedging. [8] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Overall View - Bauxite Market: The Guinea general election is basically settled. The future mining rectification in Guinea is expected to focus on "cleaning up the stock and optimizing the structure", and large - scale mines in production face a low risk of policy - related shutdown. The cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to Guinean ports is mainly between $20 - 45 per ton. The expected CIF average price range of Guinean bauxite in 2026 by mainstream institutions is $58 - 68 per ton. [9] - Alumina Market: As of the end of December, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 94.4 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.14%. The new alumina production capacity in 2026 is about 14.4 million tons per year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the overseas new capacity scale may be limited. In 2026, the domestic market may start production cuts at the beginning of the year, driving up prices, but the subsequent复产 will lead to a "shortage - then - surplus" cycle in the second half of the year. [9] - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In November, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6393 million tons, both slightly higher than the previous month. The global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to almost disappear in 2026. [9] - Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,300 yuan per ton. In November 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on January 1, 2026, may increase the short - term export cost. [9] - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 638,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 35% higher than the same period last year. The inventory in factories and the social inventory are still at a relatively low level since 2022. The aluminum rod inventory is 139,600 tons, an increase of about 11% from last week and about 20% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a low level in recent years. [9] - Profit: The average full cost of the domestic alumina industry in the recent month is about 2,780 yuan per ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan per ton and a theoretical profit of about 0 yuan per ton for the futures main contract. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan per ton, with a theoretical profit of about 5,500 yuan per ton. [10] - Market Expectation: The positive macro - sentiment still dominates. In the first quarter, the supply will increase slightly while the demand is disturbed by factors such as the Spring Festival, so the supply - demand contradiction of electrolytic aluminum may be prominent, and the price may reach a relative low point around the Spring Festival, but it is advisable to consider laying out long positions. In the second quarter, with the implementation of fiscal stimulus policies at home and abroad, the price has a driving force to rise again. [10] 3.2 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of imported and domestic bauxite are generally stable, with few market transactions. The domestic coal price has dropped significantly recently, and the advantage of imported coal is significantly compressed. The terminal power plant has sufficient inventory and purchases cautiously, and the coal price is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term. The alumina spot market is stable this week, and low prices attract some buyers. The market has great differences in the recent trend of alumina, but the pessimistic sentiment still dominates. [11] 3.3 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The bauxite inventory at domestic ports has been slightly declining since the end of November. With the resumption of production of some mines in Guinea, the arrival pressure next year is still high, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. Alumina has been in the process of inventory accumulation since the end of May and is currently at a high level in recent years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and although the overall inventory level is relatively low since 2022, the high price and the off - season have restricted the warehouse shipment volume. The LME aluminum inventory is at a low level in recent years. [13][15][16] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - Downstream Profit: The domestic alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss, and the electrolytic aluminum has a relatively high theoretical profit, but the theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum exists. [18] - Downstream Start - up Situation: The operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises has decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline steadily in January. The operating rates of some sub - sectors such as aluminum strips, cables, and profiles have decreased. [24][25] 3.5 Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a contango market structure, and the electrolytic aluminum output can be smoothly transferred to the middle and lower reaches. [29] 3.6 Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,520 yuan per ton, and the current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which has a negative impact on electrolytic aluminum. [35][36] 3.7 Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The latest net long position of funds has continued to increase slightly. Since November 2025, the long camp has remained stable while the short camp has significantly reduced positions. Overall, overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long - position floating - profit positions are heavy, and high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur. [38] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net short position of the main force has converged this week. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the long camp increased slightly while the short camp slightly reduced positions. The net short position of funds mainly for financial speculation continued to increase slightly, and the net long position of funds from middle and lower - stream enterprises is in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the main funds are still relatively cautious about the recent rise. [41]