银行资产质量持续巩固
Xiangcai Securities·2026-01-04 11:25

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [9][39]. Core Insights - The financial stability report indicates that the asset quality of banks continues to consolidate, with significant progress in resolving debt risks associated with financing platforms and managing risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions [8][36]. - As of the end of 2024, approximately 40% of financing platforms have exited the platform sequence through market-oriented transformations, with the scale of operational financial debt for these platforms around 14.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 25% from early 2023 [9][36]. - The average interest rate for newly issued bonds by financing platforms dropped to 2.67% in Q4 2024, a reduction of over 2 percentage points compared to Q1 2023, indicating a significant decrease in financing risk premiums [9][36]. - The overall risk status of national banks is stable, with 71% of the asset scale concentrated in 21 national banks, and the majority of ratings falling within levels 1-5 [9][36]. - The report highlights that there are no "red zone" banks in nine provinces, and the number of "red zone" banks in 13 provinces remains in single digits, indicating a significant reduction in existing risks across most regions [10][36]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of -10.7% and an absolute return of 7.0% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The banking sector's profitability is stabilizing at the bottom, with ongoing risk management in key areas such as urban investment and real estate, creating conditions for valuation recovery [12][39]. - In a low-interest-rate environment, the high dividend advantage of bank stocks is expected to continue, highlighting their investment value [12][39]. - Recommended banks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, CITIC Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Suzhou Bank [12][39].