转债周度跟踪：偏股转债估值重回高位，警惕“双高”转债-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, convertible bonds have witnessed a new round of recovery. In this round, high - parity equity - biased convertible bonds led the rise, with the military industry sector rising significantly under the commercial space theme. Due to the phased release of call risks, the valuation of high - parity convertible bonds has returned to a high level. However, the shortening of the remaining term and the weaker - than - expected downward revision of convertible bonds have caused the valuation of debt - biased convertible bonds to loosen. The convertible bond valuation structure has changed compared with the previous period. From the end - of - 2025 performance, risk appetite remains high, and the expectation of a spring rally is consistent. Convertible bonds are expected to benefit from the rise of the equity market and the activity of small and micro - cap stocks. But considering the high valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds and the recent significant decline of some "double - high" convertible bonds, be vigilant against the valuation risks of "double - high" convertible bonds represented by newly issued convertible bonds [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Convertible Bond Valuation - The market declined slightly this week, and the 100 - yuan premium rate rose 0.3% to 31.1%, approaching the high of 31.4% on August 25, 2025. After excluding abnormal points, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market's convertible bonds is 31.1%, up 0.3% week - on - week, and the latest quantile is at the 99.8% percentile since 2017 [5]. - By grouping and weighted - calculating the valuation changes of individual bonds in comparable terms according to parity, it's found that this week, the valuation of the equity - biased area is better overall than that of the debt - biased and balanced areas. The valuations of the balanced and debt - biased areas mainly declined, the valuation in the 120 - 140 yuan parity range increased slightly, and the valuation in the range above 140 yuan remained roughly flat [10]. - From the perspective of individual bonds, the convertible bonds with a large decline in high - parity area valuation are mainly of two types: those entering the redemption process with the conversion premium rate actively compressed, such as Guanglian Convertible Bond and Songsheng Convertible Bond; and those with significantly compressed "double - high" convertible bond valuations, such as Haohan Convertible Bond and Huicheng Convertible Bond. The convertible bonds with a decline in medium - and low - parity area valuation are those approaching maturity and those with continuous non - downward revision, such as Baolai Convertible Bond and Weil Convertible Bond [13]. - As of the latest data, from the perspective of the conversion premium rate, the historical quantiles of the valuation in the 110 - 120 yuan and 80 - 90 yuan parity ranges are relatively low; from the perspective of the bottom - support premium rate, the historical quantiles of the valuation in the 70 - 90 yuan parity range are relatively low [17]. 2. Clause Tracking 2.1 Redemption - This week, Yingte Convertible Bond announced redemption, and no convertible bond announced not to redeem, with a forced - redemption rate of 100%. Currently, there are 12 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but have not been delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of the forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones is 4 billion yuan. There are currently 27 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 7 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 12 are expected to issue announcements of potential trigger of redemption. In addition, 17 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [21][23]. 2.2 Downward Revision - One convertible bond proposed a downward revision this week, and Hongchuan Convertible Bond announced the downward - revision result but did not revise to the bottom. As of the latest, 111 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 19 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price and no announcement has been made, 22 are in the process of accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [27]. 2.3 Put Option - Shanbo Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement this week. As of the latest, 5 convertible bonds are in the process of accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 3 are also in the process of accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision interval [30]. 3. Primary Issuance - As of the latest, there are 9 convertible bonds in the approval - for - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 11.2 billion yuan; there are 6 convertible bonds in the listing - committee - approval progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 3.4 billion yuan [32].