海外利率周报20260104：政策范式不确定性升温，美债交易情绪维持谨慎-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Policy paradigm uncertainty is rising, and trading sentiment in the US Treasury market remains cautious. The focus has shifted to the Fed's path and fiscal outlook [2][13] - The US manufacturing sector is in a slow - growth period with both resilience and pressure, and the employment market shows certain resilience under macro - pressure [3][4] - Global major asset classes show different trends, with German bonds weakening slightly, Japanese bonds rising, Asian equity markets performing strongly, Bitcoin and industrial metals strengthening, and global major foreign exchanges generally under pressure [9][22][24][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. US Treasury Yield Review This Week - Yield changes from December 26, 2025, to January 2, 2026: 1 - month (+2bp, 3.72%), 1 - year (-2bp, 3.47%), 2 - year (+1bp, 3.47%), 5 - year (+6bp, 3.74%), 10 - year (+5bp, 4.19%), 30 - year (+5bp, 4.86%). The long - end yields rose slightly overall [2][13] - The Fed's December FOMC meeting minutes made the market's expectation of a rate cut in the April 2026 meeting decline. The prospect of Trump nominating a new Fed chair also disturbs the market's outlook on the future monetary policy path, creating a more cautious trading atmosphere [2][13] 2. US Macroeconomic Indicator Review 2.1 Business Index - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 51.8, in line with expectations but lower than the previous value of 52.2. The manufacturing expansion speed dropped to the lowest in nearly five months, and the growth momentum of the industrial sector slowed down moderately [3][20] - New orders decreased for the first time in a year, and exports declined for seven consecutive months due to tariff frictions. Input cost inflation slowed to an 11 - month low, but prices remained at a historical high, disturbing business confidence [3][20] 2.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims in the week of December 27, 2026, decreased by 16,000 to 199,000, lower than the forecast of 219,000 and the previous value of 215,000, enhancing the market's confidence in the economic "soft landing" [4][21] - However, considering the Christmas holiday, the data may be distorted by seasonal factors. Still, it alleviates public concerns about the labor market and provides a reference for the 2026 monetary policy [4][21] 3. Major Asset Review 3.1 Bonds - German bonds weakened slightly. Yield changes: 2 - year (-2bp, 2.12%), 5 - year (-1bp, 2.45%), 7 - year (-1bp, 2.65%), 10 - year (0bp, 2.87%), 15 - year (-1bp, 3.25%), 30 - year (+1bp, 3.50%). Weak economic data and policy uncertainty may lead the market to bet on a more dovish ECB stance [22] - Japanese bonds continued to rise. Yield changes: 1 - year (+2.1bp, 0.93%), 2 - year (+1.2bp, 1.17%), 3 - year (+2.6bp, 1.34%), 5 - year (+2.3bp, 1.55%), 7 - year (+3.5bp, 1.87%), 10 - year (+3.2bp, 2.07%), 15 - year (+1.6bp, 3.05%), 20 - year (+1.8bp, 2.98%). Expectations of the BoJ's policy normalization, inflation pressure, and rising fiscal risk premiums pushed up yields [23] 3.2 Equities - Global equity markets showed significant differentiation. Asian markets performed strongly. The top three gainers were the South Korean Composite Index (+4.36%), the Vietnam VN30 (+3.29%), and the Hang Seng Index (+2.01%). The US Nasdaq fell 1.52%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.81% [24] 3.3 Commodities - Bitcoin and industrial metals strengthened. The top three gainers were Bitcoin (+3.00%), London Silver (+2.82%), and LME Copper (+2.60%). Precious metals and agricultural products were under pressure. The top three losers were London Gold (-2.85%), CBOT Corn (-2.78%), and CBOT Soybeans (-2.49%) [25] 3.4 Foreign Exchange - Global major foreign exchanges (against the RMB) were generally under pressure. The top three losers were the Russian Ruble (-1.22%), the Swiss Franc (-0.94%), and the Euro (-0.66%) [26] 4. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts, including the weekly changes in government bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major global stock indices, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major global foreign exchanges (against the RMB), and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [27][31][33][37][39]