Changjiang Securities·2026-01-04 11:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The focus should be on the logic of long-term profit improvement rather than short-term valuation changes. The insurance industry's ability and willingness to allocate equity will significantly boost in the foreseeable future, combined with the advantages of improved liability costs, leading to a sustained increase in industry spreads in the medium to long term. This will drive the profitability of policies, with ideal models suggesting profitability could exceed 1 times the effective business value, indicating ample room for valuation recovery [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Why There is No Need to Worry About Base Pressure - The trend of deposit migration is smooth, and both new business and NBV bases are not excessively high, resulting in low pressure on the liability side. The strong performance of the asset side will benefit profits, but short-term valuation is primarily influenced by investment returns, meaning profit growth or decline does not necessarily lead to corresponding changes in valuation [5][18]. 2. How to Assess Premium Space - Short-term perspective: Assuming that the incremental life insurance mainly comes from the maturity of deposits, the forecast for 2026 is a personal insurance scale of CNY 4.8 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 10% [6][56]. - Long-term perspective: As the proportion of pension asset reserves gradually approaches that of the U.S., the trend of deposit migration to insurance will continue, driven by the multi-level pension system development, maintaining a CAGR of around 10% over the next decade [6][65]. 3. Scale and Direction of Insurance Capital Market Entry - It is estimated that the scale of insurance funds allocated to A-shares in 2026 will be approximately CNY 3,127 to 7,685 billion, based on the initiative to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares [7][69]. 4. Why Long-term Valuation Recovery is Promising - The combination of current industry conditions and policy environment will significantly enhance the insurance industry's ability and willingness to allocate equity in the foreseeable future. This, along with improved liability cost advantages, will lead to a sustained increase in industry spreads, driving policy profitability improvement and indicating ample room for valuation recovery [8][47].