国泰君安期货·能源化工：合成橡胶周度报告-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term central price of synthetic rubber will move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term [2][4]. - The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be bullish, but it still faces high supply pressure in the medium term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons compared to the expected output in December 2025. One set of equipment with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year is planned for maintenance in the next month. The only established maintenance plan is for Maoming Petrochemical, and some other equipment maintenance plans may be cancelled. Dushanzi Petrochemical's 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant is planned to be shut down throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of the cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the upper limit of the static valuation is invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation instead of the cost side [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue to be weak from December 26, 2025 to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged routine maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and production scheduling at the end of the month decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, resulting in a slight decline in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support. The bullish mid - term market outlook in January boosted the enthusiasm of some traders, and with the impact of a small amount of stockpiling before the New Year's Day holiday, some production enterprises significantly destocked, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term trading range will move up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread will gradually narrow [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The weekly output in the next week is expected to be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7]. Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, so the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants decreases, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [9]. - ABS has high inventory pressure, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - The operating rate of SBS has slightly increased, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene with little change [9]. Inventory - From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 0.13% compared to the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.58% compared to the previous week, while the port inventory increased by 3.23% compared to the previous week. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, the butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion, and its expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14][16]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - The output and operating rate data of cis - butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations over the years [47]. - The cost, profit, and gross margin of cis - butadiene rubber production also fluctuate over time [49][50][51]. - The import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years. The weekly apparent demand also fluctuates [53][54][55]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, shows different trends over time [59][61]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - The inventory and operating rate of tires, an important downstream product of cis - butadiene rubber, also show different trends over the years [63][64].