委内瑞拉局势升级，原料端风险发酵

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - As the situation in Venezuela escalates, the risk on the raw material side of asphalt is increasing. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, leading to a rise in the cost center of asphalt refineries, there is room for further rebound in asphalt spot and futures prices [1][12]. - Domestically, with the marginal easing of supply pressure and the stabilization of the spot market, the bottom signal of the asphalt futures market is gradually consolidating. However, the real - world fundamentals are still relatively weak, and the potential upward driver of the market comes from the raw material side [1][26]. - The winter storage demand is gradually being released, and the bottom signal of the spot market is emerging. The supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spot market in the north has stabilized first. The market pressure in the south has also eased recently, and prices are showing signs of a rebound [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Venezuela Situation Continues to Escalate, and the Risk on the Asphalt Raw Material Side Increases - The US sanctions on Venezuela this year have had a repeated impact on the supply and pricing of Venezuelan oil, which has been transmitted to the domestic market. In the first half of the year, the sanctions mainly focused on the economic level, and the changes in oil license permissions had the most significant impact on oil supply and logistics [7][8]. - In the fourth quarter, the US countermeasures against Venezuela expanded from the economic to the military level. The situation in South America further escalated, and the shipping volume of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia decreased significantly. The floating and in - transit inventories of Merey crude oil also increased significantly [8][11]. - If the US blockade of Venezuela continues and Venezuela cannot find effective ways to circumvent it, the supply of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia will tighten, and domestic refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil and fuel oil from other regions, but the raw material cost will rise significantly [12]. Winter Storage Demand is Gradually Released, and the Bottom Signal of the Spot Market Appears - Previously, due to the decline in oil prices and the discount of diluted asphalt, refinery profits improved, and major refineries released low - price resources. Terminal demand was weak, and the spot market was under pressure. Recently, with the release of winter storage demand, the supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spot market in the north has stabilized first [25]. - The market in South China was weaker. Recently, major refineries released more supplies, and the spot price fell continuously. With the increase in raw - material - side sentiment in the futures market, the basis in South China decreased, and the spot - futures arbitrage window opened, stimulating spot - side buying [25]. - After the concentrated release of selling pressure in December, the supply from refineries in South China decreased, and the market pressure eased. Prices have shown signs of a rebound recently [25]. Investment Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the main BU contract at low prices, and avoid chasing the rise [2]. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the opportunity for positive spreads at low prices (BU2603 - BU2606) [2]. - No strategies are provided for cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].