港口现实库存压力仍高，等待伊朗装船进一步回落

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current inventory pressure at ports remains high, and it is necessary to wait for a further decline in Iranian shipments. The impact of plant maintenance on actual shipment volume decline needs further confirmation. The port inventory increased rapidly in late December and returned to a historical high. - The supply pressure of coal - based methanol inland is still significant, while the southwest gas - based methanol is in winter maintenance. The traditional downstream demand is in the off - season, and the factory inventory is in the rebuilding cycle. - Suggested strategies include cautiously going long on a single - side basis for hedging, widening the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low, and narrowing the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [1][3][7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Basis Strategy - Basis Status: The basis of Taicang against the MA2605 contract is still weak, oscillating between - 40 and - 15 yuan/ton. The basis of Inner Mongolia's northern line against MA2605 has dropped from + 500 yuan/ton to below + 200 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis Analysis and Forecast: Due to large port inventory and waiting for a decline in January shipments, the port basis is expected to oscillate between - 30 and 0 yuan/ton. Inland, due to high coal - based methanol production and the off - season of traditional downstream industries, the factory inventory is rebuilding, and the inland basis is expected to further weaken to the range of + 100 to + 200 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis Strategy: Wait for a further decline in Iranian shipments and a drop in Chinese arrivals. For the spread, go long on MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low. Pay attention to the decline in the off - season of traditional downstream industries for Inner Mongolia's basis [11]. II. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - Period Spreads No specific new content other than basis analysis is provided in the given text. III. Methanol Overseas and Inland Supply - Overseas Supply: Overseas methanol monthly output is 4,001,517 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.96% (unchanged). China's monthly methanol import volume is 1,417,590 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.64%. Iranian winter maintenance has started, but the decline rate of actual shipments is slow [1]. - Inland Supply: China's monthly methanol output is 9,071,285 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.88%. The operating rate is 90.97% (+ 0.45%). Coal - based methanol production in December further increased, and the southwest gas - based methanol is in winter maintenance, initially planned until mid - to late January [1]. - Production Plan: There are multiple methanol production projects in China with different production times, matching downstream facilities, and production capacities [27]. IV. Methanol Downstream Demand - Port MTO Demand: The operating rate of external methanol - purchasing MTO enterprises is 85.66% (- 0.34%). Methanol - to - olefin production is 1,711,511 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. Ningbo Fude's MTO unit started maintenance on December 8 for 45 days. Pay attention to the possibility of Xingxing MTO maintenance in January and the commissioning progress of Guangxi Huayi MTO in the second quarter of 2026 [2]. - Inland Traditional Downstream Demand: Formaldehyde production is 1455000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%; glacial acetic acid production is 1,095,550 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.47%; MTBE production is 1,804,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.56%; dimethyl ether production is 42,030 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.26%. The operating rates of different products vary, with formaldehyde in the off - season and acetic acid's operating rate rising from the bottom [2]. - Inland MTO Demand: The weekly procurement volume of northwest MTO enterprises is 56,500 tons (+ 10,500). Luxi MTO maintains a low - load operation, while the new Lunan Lianhong Phase II MTO unit was put into operation on December 10, driving new inland MTO demand [3]. V. Methanol Port Inventory and Inland Inventory - Port Inventory: Methanol port inventory is 1,477,408 tons (+ 64,899), including 843,845 tons in Jiangsu (+ 28,554), 203,300 tons in Zhejiang (+ 11,300), 214,000 tons in Guangdong (- 19,000), and 216,263 tons in Fujian (+ 44,045). The inventory of MTO sample enterprises is 760,000 tons (+ 70,000). The port inventory pressure is still large due to the delayed unloading and reduced demand for port - to - inland shipments [3]. - Inland Inventory: China's inland methanol factory inventory is 422,590 tons (+ 18,620), with 253,500 tons in the northwest factory warehouse (+ 22,000). The factory inventory is in the rebuilding cycle due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries and high coal - based supply pressure [3].