油脂月报：油脂供应端约束将逐步显现-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the oil and fat industry [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the futures prices of the three major oils and fats first declined and then rebounded. The upper - half of the month saw price pressure due to factors such as unexpected inventory accumulation in Malaysia, global rapeseed bumper harvest, low - level crude oil, and imported soybean auctions. In the second half, price support emerged due to factors like seasonal production cuts in Malaysia, export orders for soybean oil, and continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil [6] - In the future, the supply constraints of oils and fats will gradually appear. Although the current inventory of some oils is high, the supply of palm oil will be constrained during the production - reduction season, and the supply pressure of rapeseed oil has not fully emerged [2][5][8][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Quotes - Futures: In December, the closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,584 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 178 yuan or 2.03%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,862 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 218 yuan or 2.7%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,087 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 320 yuan or 3.4% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,570 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton or 1.72%, and the spot basis was P05 - 14, a month - on - month increase of 28 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 190 yuan or 2.25%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 388, a month - on - month increase of 28 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38 yuan or 0.38%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 743, a month - on - month increase of 282 yuan [1] 3.2 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: The USDA estimates that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season will be 80.016 million tons, a downward revision of 800,000 tons from last month's estimate. From December 1 - 25, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. In November 2025, China's total palm oil imports were 405,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 48.96% and a year - on - year increase of 68.16%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative palm oil imports were 2.9329 million tons, a decrease of 325,100 tons or 9.98% compared with the same period last year [2] - Demand: In December, the total transaction volume of palm oil in domestic key oil mills was 13,000 tons, with an average daily transaction volume of 590.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 709.25 tons or 54.55% [2] - Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons or 4.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 205,700 tons or 38.93% [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In November 2025, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.373 million tons compared with October and a year - on - year increase of 953,000 tons or 13.32%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 103.7814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6872 million tons or 6.89%. In November 2025, China's soybean oil imports were 51,226.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.42% and a year - on - year increase of 827.22%. From January to November, the cumulative soybean oil imports were 339,348.067 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,326.984 tons or 23.84%. In December 2025, the soybean - pressed soybean oil output of domestic oil mills was 1.7196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons or 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 141,900 tons or 8.99%. From January to December 2025, the total soybean - pressed soybean oil output was 19.3287 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.47% [3] - Demand: In December, the total transaction volume of bulk soybean oil in domestic key oil mills was 461,400 tons, with an average daily transaction volume of 21,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.58% in total transaction volume and an increase of 2.33% in average daily transaction volume [3] - Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.089 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,500 tons or 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 122,700 tons or 12.70% [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In December, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the same as last month. The rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the same as last month. The rapeseed oil pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 8,500 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons compared with last month. It is expected that the rapeseed oil pick - up volume in the market will further decline in January 2026 [5] - Inventory: As of the end of December, the inventory of imported rapeseed across the country was 0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory of coastal oil mills was 4,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - In December, the futures prices of the three major oils and fats first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the month, due to factors such as unexpected inventory accumulation in Malaysia, global rapeseed bumper harvest, low - level crude oil, and imported soybean auctions, the prices of oils and fats were under pressure. Rapeseed oil had the largest decline among the oils and fats because of the large previous increase and the departure of funds. In the second half of the month, with the seasonal production cuts in Malaysia, export orders for soybean oil, and continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, the prices of oils and fats were supported and rebounded slightly [6] - As of December 31, 2025, the price difference between the soybean oil and palm oil 05 contracts was - 722, and the price difference between the rapeseed oil and palm oil 05 contracts was 503 [6] 3.6 Future Outlook - Soybean oil: Brazil's soybean sowing is nearly complete, and the weather in the production areas of Argentina and Brazil is normal, with good crop growth. The expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans remains unchanged, and the CBOT soybean price has fallen under pressure. Although the total sales of US soybeans to China this season are lower than last year, the soybeans are being shipped, and the shortage of soybeans in the first quarter in China may be alleviated. With sufficient soybean arrivals, the soybean - crushing start - up rate of oil mills in December was high, and the supply of soybean oil was abundant with high inventory. Recently, the market is concerned that the customs clearance time of soybean arrivals may be extended, and the soybean - related products rebounded at the end of December. There may be two additional export orders for soybean oil in March, which will help reduce the domestic soybean oil inventory [7] - Palm oil: Indonesia has set the reference price of crude palm oil in January at $915.64 per ton, and the export tax remains at $74 per ton. Additionally, a 10% special export tax is levied on crude palm oil, and the cost support has weakened. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November increased significantly, which put pressure on prices. India's palm oil imports may continue to increase in December. Although the domestic palm oil inventory is still accumulating, the supply will be constrained as the production area enters the production - reduction season, and the low inventory in Indonesia also provides some support for prices [8] - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed production in Canada and Australia has increased, and the global rapeseed supply is in a loose pattern this season. The ICE rapeseed price has declined. The export data of Canadian rapeseed is not good, which is expected to continue to suppress the rapeseed market. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, the available spot is limited, the spot basis is high, and the spot merchants are strongly willing to support prices. The supply increase from imported Australian rapeseed is limited, and the short - term supply pressure has not fully emerged [9][10] 3.7 Strategies - Soybean oil: Pay attention to the positive spread logic from January to March, and layout the near - month basis based on export orders and spot tightness [13] - Rapeseed oil: Seize the short - term basis strength opportunity based on the tight spot situation [13] - Palm oil: Layout the basis at low prices and pay attention to the changes in the origin's inventory and import data [13]