年末贵金属行情发酵，中长线看多逻辑不改

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [4] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [6] - Options: Hold off [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long term, gold remains a hard-to-replace alternative asset to the US dollar, and with the expected downward movement of real interest rates in the future, it is recommended to buy on dips. However, there is a risk of further short-term corrections. Silver showed a strong unilateral upward trend in December, with a short-term sharp correction near the end of the year. Short-term risk assets still face a risk of decline, and it is advisable to take a wait-and-see approach [4][5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market News and Key Data - Precious Metals Main Logic - Interest Rates: In December 2025, the Fed's last rate cut of the year was implemented, with the federal funds rate target range lowered to 3.50%–3.75%. The market generally interprets the monthly purchase of about $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting from December 12 as a loose signal. There are significant differences in the outlook for the Fed's rate cut path in 2026, and the overall tone for the rate cut rhythm is neutral [1] - Inflation: In December 2025, the breakeven inflation rate increased by 2BP to 2.25%. In November, the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest since early 2021, lower than the expected 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference [2] - Exchange Rates: In December 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 1.18%. The US dollar index continued to be weak in December, with the market fully pricing in the Fed's rate cut expectations. President Trump's statement about a nominee for the next Fed chair who supports "substantial" rate cuts further weakened the US dollar index [2] - Market Risk Pricing: The VIX index rose slightly at the end of December. Trump will sign a nearly $1 trillion annual defense policy bill. The 2026 Fiscal Year National Defense Authorization Act approves annual military spending of $901 billion, a record high. Uncertainty remains high regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict peace agreement [3] - ETF Holdings: As of December 31, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1070.56 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16444.14 tons. Global precious metal ETF physical holdings continued to rise in 2025, driving up the prices of gold and silver [3] Strategy - Gold: Although the gold price has declined in the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the Au2604 contract at 970 yuan/g - 980 yuan/g [4] - Silver: Silver showed a strong upward trend in December and a short-term sharp correction near the end of the year. It is advisable to take a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with the price oscillating between 16,500 yuan/kg - 18,000 yuan/kg [5] Basis Analysis of Precious Metals - Gold Basis: The Shanghai Gold Exchange spot price is stronger than the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price. The market still expects future Fed monetary easing, and the logic of gold as a substitute for US dollar assets is being realized. The strategy is to short the basis and close the position when the spot discount converges [9] - Silver Basis: The tight silver spot inventory has led to a short squeeze in the market. The strategy is to go long on the basis and close the position when the futures discount converges [9]