航运月报：MSC以及马士基1月下半月线上涨价，02合约估值不断抬升-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The online quotes of shipping lines such as MSC and Maersk increased in the second half of January, causing the valuation of the 02 contract to rise continuously [1][4][5]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract," including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [4]. - The far - month contracts are under pressure from the resumption of the Suez Canal, and their valuations may be revised downward, but there is still uncertainty in the adjustment space. Contracts in June and August, which are relatively peak seasons, still face uncertainty [6]. - The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the unilateral strategy, and there is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 4, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 54,478 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 26,823 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1801.30, 1166.00, 1367.90, 1500.00, 1060.00, and 1297.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Shipping lines' online quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route changed in January. For example, Maersk's quote in the second week of January was 1600/2580, and in the third week it was 1625/2610; HPL's quote in the first half of January was 1835/3035, and in the second half it was 2135/3535. MSC's price in the first half of January was 1700/2840, and in the second half it was 1880/3140 [1]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 26 was 1690 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2188 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3033 dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 29 was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [2]. - For ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [2]. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, with capacities of 355,600, 309,400, 330,700, and 278,700 TEU in Weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 272,400 TEU [3]. - There were 3 blank sailings (2 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (1 by the OA Alliance) in January, 7 TBNs (4 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 4 blank sailings in February, and 3 blank sailings and 7 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) has fully resumed operation since January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single - trial operation. Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since its withdrawal in January 2024 on December 19, 2025 [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy No relevant detailed analysis content provided in the text.