化工下游利润承压，地产下游回暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the previously persistent pattern of industry prosperity differentiation reversed. The overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry significantly rebounded, with the official manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion zone of 50.3%. This was mainly due to the continuous release of the effects of stable - growth policies and the pre - festival stocking activities. However, the core contradictions in the motor and chemical fiber & rubber - plastic industries became more prominent and showed different paths: the main pressure on the motor industry shifted from demand fluctuations to severe cost shocks, leading to a collective price increase in late December to early January; while the chemical fiber & rubber - plastic industry continued to face the structural pressure of "strong supply and weak demand", with low operating rates, weak product prices, and squeezed profit margins. Overall, the challenges in the industrial chain are evolving from general demand shortages to more structural cost reshaping and supply - demand rebalancing [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Overview 3.1.1 Manufacturing - Prosperity Overview: In December, the prosperity of the pharmaceutical and textile - clothing industries increased significantly, while that of the petroleum and metal products industries declined [8] - Demand Overview: In December, the demand for the pharmaceutical and textile - clothing industries increased, while that for the petroleum and electronic information industries declined [8] - Supply Overview: In December, the supply of the chemical, automotive, textile - clothing, and pharmaceutical industries increased significantly, while that of the agricultural and sideline food, petroleum, and general equipment industries declined [8] - Inventory Overview: In December, the inventory of the chemical, motor equipment, and special equipment industries increased, while the non - metallic products, agricultural and sideline food, and metal products industries reduced their inventory [8] - Export Sub - sectors: In December, the exports of the non - ferrous metal processing, non - metallic products, and tobacco products industries declined significantly [8] - Cost Sub - sectors: In December, the costs of the textile - clothing, apparel, and cultural, educational, and sports goods industries declined significantly [8] - Income Sub - sectors: In December, the incomes of the textile - clothing, apparel, and wine, beverage, and refined tea industries declined significantly [8] - Profit Sub - sectors: In December, the profits of the tobacco products, printing, and reproduction media industries declined significantly [8] 3.1.2 Non - manufacturing - Prosperity Overview: In December, the prosperity of the civil engineering, environmental, and construction industries increased, while that of the postal, information, and accommodation industries declined [23] - Demand Overview: In December, the demand for the building installation and decoration, environmental, and construction industries increased, while that for the aviation, postal, and civil engineering industries declined [23] - Supply Overview: In December, the supply of the environmental and construction industries increased significantly, while that of the postal and civil engineering industries declined [23] - Inventory Overview: In December, the inventory of the construction industry increased, while the IT and aviation industries reduced their inventory [23] 3.2 Chemical Product Price Fluctuations Squeeze Mid - stream Profits - Price Trends of Chemical Products: In December, most major chemical products rose in price, with a few declining. PTA/PX prices continued to rise in December due to upstream cost support and low mid - stream operating rates; urea prices were supported by supply contraction from gas - head device maintenance and seasonal demand for compound fertilizer production; PVC price increases were driven by macro - policy expectations and commodity market sentiment; ethylene glycol prices were mainly affected by raw material cost support and market expectations of possible production conversion in EO/EG co - production plants. PP and PE prices declined due to supply - side pressure and weak downstream demand [29] - Situation of the Textile and Chemical Fiber Industry Chain: In December, the textile and chemical fiber industry chain showed a typical pattern of "hot upstream and cold downstream". The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and PTA continued to rise, but the price transmission to the mid - stream polyester segment was blocked. The profit margins of mid - stream textile manufacturing enterprises were severely squeezed. The textile and clothing, apparel industries have entered the production off - season, and production cuts may be a future direction. The comprehensive operating rate of the polyester industry has been declining since December, and it is expected to drop by more than 5 percentage points in January. High upstream raw material inventories and falling operating rates may suppress the profit margins of the entire industrial chain [29][30][31] 3.3 Real Estate Downstream Consumption Warms Up - Market Performance: From November to December 2025, the downstream real estate sales in China showed signs of a phased recovery. The new - home market saw an increase in new supply and a decrease in inventory in November, and the transaction area continued to grow in December. The second - hand housing market also had significant month - on - month growth in transaction areas in November and December. Nationally, the unsold commercial housing area decreased in November [39] - Reasons for the Recovery: The policy environment has been continuously optimized, releasing demand; real - estate developers actively promoted projects to meet annual performance targets; the market showed structural differentiation, with core cities and high - quality projects acting as stabilizers. However, the current recovery is a month - on - month improvement based on a deep year - on - year adjustment, and most transaction data still have large year - on - year declines, with housing prices still in a downward trend. The market is still in the bottom - building stage of the transformation from the old to the new model [39][40]