烧碱市场要闻与数据：需求季节性下滑，关注宏观动态

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side is operating at a high level, and the demand side shows weakening trends. The overall supply - demand situation is weak. The future focus is on changes in liquid chlorine prices, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3]. - The PVC market was weak in the early part of the month, rebounded due to macro - sentiment, and then the macro - sentiment faded, with the overall supply - demand situation remaining weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policies [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis Strategy Analysis - Caustic Soda: The basis of caustic soda maintains a C - structure. The spot price first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The inventory is at a high level, and the basis is expected to continue to weaken. A reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. - PVC: The basis of PVC also shows a C - structure. After the price hit a new low, the supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the basis strengthened slightly. However, it is expected to weaken again in the future, and a reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price & Spread - In December, the spot price of caustic soda first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The high - level operation of production led to an oversupply situation and inventory accumulation. The demand from alumina is relatively stable, but the procurement price has been adjusted downward. Non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January [13]. 3.3 PVC Price & Spread - In December, the PVC price first fell and then rose. The high inventory led to a continuous decline in price, and the low price improved the supply - demand situation marginally. Macro - sentiment boosted the long - term demand expectation, but the overall supply - demand situation remained weak after the macro - sentiment faded [35]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has been significantly reduced and is at a low level compared to the same period. The profit of PVC upstream raw materials is extremely compressed. The price of ethylene is expected to remain weak in January [52]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Supply - In December, new caustic soda production capacity was put into operation, and the overall supply remained at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises in January, and the supply is expected to remain high due to the good market conditions of liquid chlorine [70]. 3.6 Liquid Chlorine Price and Its Downstream Products - In December, the price of liquid chlorine increased. The downstream demand supported the price, but in January, the terminal demand of some downstream products entered the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [82]. 3.7 PVC Supply - The overall PVC output remained high in December. All new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is still abundant. There is no new domestic production capacity in 2026, and the overseas supply contraction in December 2025 provided a small support to the market sentiment [98]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The demand from alumina is expected to weaken in the long - term. The non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January, and the demand of various industries is expected to decline seasonally [110]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Import and Export - The main import sources of domestic liquid caustic soda in November were Singapore, Norway, and Germany, and the main export destinations were Indonesia, Australia, and Canada. The export orders remain normal [132]. 3.10 PVC Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PVC is weakening. The demand for pipes and profiles is affected by the sluggish real - estate market, while the film industry performs relatively well. The downstream demand is expected to decline further in January [145]. 3.11 PVC Import and Export - The BIS certification and anti - dumping duties of PVC in India have been cancelled, and the export expectation for 2026 is improving. The current PVC export maintains its resilience through price - for - volume strategy [156]. 3.12 Caustic Soda and PVC Inventory Data - The inventory of caustic soda increased in December due to factors such as production increase and weakening downstream demand. The PVC social inventory continued to increase, and the high - level futures warehouse receipts continued to suppress the PVC futures price [160].