果蔬品月报：苹果优果压制走货，红枣关注节日氛围-20260104

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy is neutral to bullish [5] - Red dates investment strategy is neutral [10] Group 2: Core Views - In December, apples had low inventory, quality differentiation, and stable prices, with slow de - stocking. The new - season apples had reduced production and quality, and the sales of good and bad apples were polarized in the market. In January 26, due to low high - quality fruit rate and inventory, high - quality fruit prices suppressed sales in the sales area, and low - price substitute fruits squeezed the sales space [3][4][5] - As of the end of December, the acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang was nearing completion, and the market focus shifted to the circulation in the sales area and the release of Spring Festival stocking demand. The sales area had sufficient supply but weak trading atmosphere, and the inventory pressure was high. The price trend in the medium - and long - term depends on the consumption during the Spring Festival [7][9] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Apple) - As of the end of December, the closing price of Apple 2605 contract was 9120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 459 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.79%. The spot price of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Shandong Qixia was 8200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 700 yuan/ton; the spot price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 8400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - As of the 52nd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.82 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg and a month - on - month increase of 0.51 yuan/kg. As of December 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was about 7.021 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 272.5 million tons [2] - As of the 52nd week of 2025, the wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, bananas, watermelons, pineapples, and Fuji apples increased by 0.83 yuan/kg, 0.23 yuan/kg, 0.15 yuan/kg, 0.28 yuan/kg, and 0.07 yuan/kg respectively week - on - week, while the wholesale price of Ya pears decreased by 0.04 yuan/kg week - on - week [2] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Red Dates) - As of the end of December, the closing price of Red Dates 2605 contract was 8965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 210 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.29%. The current mainstream prices of general red dates in Aksu, Alar, Kashgar, and Maigaiti were 5 - 5.3 yuan/kg, 5.2 - 5.8 yuan/kg, 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg, and 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg respectively. The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 400 yuan/ton [7] - In December, the acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang was nearing completion, and the ownership of the acquired goods was being transferred. The new - season red dates were generally smaller but of better quality than last year. The sales area had low trading activity, and the market focus shifted to the circulation in the sales area and the Spring Festival stocking demand [7] - The arrival volume of red dates in the sales area in December was small, but the supply increased. The average prices of special - grade and first - grade red dates in Hebei Cuierzhuang decreased by 0.28 yuan/kg and 0.47 yuan/kg respectively month - on - month. The prices of all grades in Henan and Guangzhou markets also decreased by 0.3 - 0.5 yuan/kg. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, an increase of 5050 tons compared with last month [8] Group 5: Market Analysis (Apple) - In December, the sales of out - of - cold - storage late Fuji apples were nearly over, and the trading was mainly based on cold - storage goods. The commodity rate was lower than in previous years, and the prices of good and bad apples were polarized. The cold - storage de - stocking was slow, and the de - stocking speed was lower than the same period in previous years. The de - stocking rhythm and the supply of substitute fruits in the next month will affect the market [4] Group 6: Market Analysis (Red Dates) - Currently, the acquisition of red dates is coming to an end, and the goods are being transferred from farmers and local cooperatives to processing enterprises and traders. In December, the sales area had sufficient supply but weak trading atmosphere, and the inventory pressure was high. The medium - and long - term price trend depends on the consumption during the Spring Festival [9] Group 7: Basis Analysis - The spot basis of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Shandong Qixia was AP05 - 920, a month - on - month increase of 1159; the spot basis of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was CJ05 - 665, a month - on - month decrease of 190. The basis of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan and red dates in Henan also had corresponding changes [13] - The basis is flattening, and it is expected that other regions will maintain the current basis structure. During the festival sales period, attention should be paid to the sales speed of apples and red dates [13]