化工月报：短期PX存回撤风险，中期预期仍好-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the cost - side support for PX and PTA weakened slightly, but their prices rose significantly due to the expectation of tight supply and demand for PX in the first half of next year, with improved profitability. However, the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed the raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of the raw materials. The processing profit of PF was compressed due to weak textile and clothing demand, and the downstream of PR was weak, with only rigid - demand replenishment [1]. - In the short term, PX has a risk of retracement, but the medium - term expectation is still good. The report suggests short - term retracement for PX/PTA/PF/PR and mid - term buying on dips for hedging. For PTA and PX, the 2605 - 2609 month - spread can be bought after retracement [1][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - In December, Brent crude oil price broke through the lower edge of the $60 - 65/barrel range, reaching around $58/barrel. The medium - term fundamental pressure on crude oil still suppressed oil prices. PX and PTA prices rose significantly, with PXN reaching around $380/ton and PTA processing fee recovering to below 300 yuan/ton, but the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of raw materials. PF processing profit was compressed, and PR basis weakened with a narrowing of the spot processing fee [1][13]. - Regarding the basis strategy, the PTA basis is expected to fluctuate in January, the PX basis is expected to oscillate, the PF basis is expected to adjust passively with raw materials, and the PR basis is expected to move within a range [12]. 3.2 PX and PTA Supply - PX supply: In 2026, the new PX production capacity that can actually be realized is mainly 2 million tons from Liaoning Huajin Aramco, and the total new production capacity including the expansion of Fujia Dahua is expected to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. In December, foreign PX plants operated at a high load, and production continued to increase. There are no maintenance plans in January, and PX production is expected to remain high. Overseas PX operation rate has an upward expectation [2][43]. - PTA supply: 8.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity have been put into operation this year, and there are no new production capacity plans in 2026. In December, due to low profitability, the maintenance volume of PTA plants remained high. In January, some plants will restart, and PTA load and production are expected to increase slightly compared with December [3][43]. 3.3 Inventory - PX inventory: The PX balance sheet is expected to accumulate about 80,000 tons in December. The current PX social inventory is at a seasonally low level, and the inventories in Japan and South Korea are moderately low. In January, the PTA load increase is limited, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a loose balance, with an expected inventory accumulation of about 90,000 tons [2][55][58]. - PTA inventory: The Chinese PTA social inventory decreased in December, with an estimated de - stocking of about 200,000 tons. In January, although the maintenance loss is still large, the polyester load on the demand side is expected to decline, and PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory (about 70,000 tons). The near - end contradiction is not significant, but the inventory accumulation will increase in February [3][58]. 3.4 Demand - In December, domestic trade orders weakened, the weaving load declined rapidly, and the grey fabric inventory began to accumulate. Foreign trade orders started to place seasonal orders from late December, but the overall level was lower than that of the same period last year. In December, due to the rapid rise of raw materials, weaving enterprises made concentrated replenishment, and filament inventory decreased to a low level. Polyester plants operated at a relatively high load in December, but moderately reduced production at the end of the month [67]. - In January, the downstream shows a weakening trend. The recent rise in raw material prices has not promoted the sales of downstream drawn yarns and grey fabrics. The price is difficult to pass on, and the downstream operation rate may decline rapidly. If downstream enterprises stop production in advance, polyester enterprises may be forced to reduce production in advance or increase the maintenance intensity during the Spring Festival [67]. 3.5 PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - In December, the inventory of staple fiber plants remained stable at a low level, and they maintained a high - load operation. With the increase in raw materials, the profit of downstream polyester yarns decreased significantly. In January, the load may decline rapidly due to weak downstream demand, and the increase is less than that of futures. As demand weakens in January, the load is expected to decline from a high level, and the risk of high - priced raw materials increases. The market mainly purchases on demand with a wait - and - see attitude [4][91][93]. 3.6 PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Supply: In mid - to late December, two 300,000 - ton plants of Zhuhai Huaren restarted one after another, and the new plant of Fuhai was put into production in January, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. - Demand: In the first half of December, the terminal made concentrated replenishment at low prices, and the factory inventory decreased. In the second half, after the rapid rise of raw materials, the terminal was cautious about chasing the rise, and the procurement was relatively rigid. In January, there are both restart and maintenance plans, the demand is weak, the supply - demand is expected to remain weak, and the processing fee space is limited [5][111].