乳业跟踪报告：政策落地，景气上行

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the dairy industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the stabilization of raw milk prices and the expected upward trend in 2026 are driven by the reduction in supply-side expansion and decreased breeding stock, alongside the release of processing capacity on the demand side. The domestic beef demand is anticipated to be boosted by the implementation of import beef safeguard policies, leading to a sustained upward cycle in the beef industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the dairy industry will benefit from the easing of supply-side pressures and a reduction in breeding stock, with a strong likelihood of an upward trend in profitability for leading companies such as YouRan Dairy and Modern Farming [4][7]. Import Beef Safeguard Measures - The report details that starting January 1, 2026, a 55% tariff will be imposed on beef imports outside of the quota, with a nearly 6% reduction in quotas for major supplying countries. This policy is expected to enhance domestic beef demand and support the beef industry's growth cycle [2][4]. Beef Import Data - In 2024, the total beef import volume was 2.87 million tons, with Brazil, Argentina, and Australia being the largest suppliers, accounting for over 93% of imports. The report notes a projected decrease of 5.7% in quotas for 2026 compared to the previous 12 months, with significant reductions for Brazil and Australia [6][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with YouRan Dairy expected to achieve an EPS of 0.33 yuan in 2026, and Modern Farming projected to reach 0.05 yuan. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are also discussed, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7].