新能源及有色金属月报：印尼政策影响下，镍不锈钢价格触底反弹-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Nickel - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong V - shaped reversal pattern, rising 13.5% for the month and hitting a new high since 2025. Indonesia's plan to cut the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 34% and the possible 2% tax on associated products like cobalt are the core driving forces for the price rebound [2]. - The supply of primary nickel increased steadily in December due to price recovery and capacity ramping up. The consumption in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector was promising. Nickel inventory was still accumulating, and high inventory would suppress the future rebound space of nickel prices [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, but with positive policies from Indonesia and nickel's long - term bottom - side oscillation, it is expected to remain strong [4]. Stainless Steel - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel showed a pattern of bottom lifting, passive following, and high - level oscillation, rising 6.15% for the month and approaching the annual high, driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel [4]. - The supply of stainless steel decreased in December 2025, while the demand increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. However, the overall weak demand situation in the traditional off - season has not fundamentally changed. The social inventory of stainless steel showed four consecutive drops [5]. - With some macro - positive factors realized and four - week inventory depletion, but the cold downstream demand in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, following the trend of Shanghai nickel [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Sector 1.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel started at 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, dropped to 111,700 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 130,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.5% [11]. 1.2 Primary Nickel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the domestic refined nickel production was 31,400 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 0.37% and a month - on - month change of +21.71%. The expected domestic refined nickel production in 2025 was 390,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's expected annual refined nickel production was 80,000 tons, with new projects like Dingxing and Yongheng releasing capacity and Qingmeibang starting production in the fourth quarter [15]. 1.3 Refined Nickel Consumption Situation - In November 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 25,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.66%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 348,400 tons, a 37.15% year - on - year increase. The demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector had good development, and the overall nickel demand remained stable [34][35]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 31, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, a 11.7% increase from the previous month, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,300 tons, a 0.4% increase, indicating a more relaxed supply pattern and suppressing the future rebound space of nickel prices [37]. Stainless Steel Sector 2.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel started at 12,375 yuan/ton, dropped to 12,290 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 13,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.15% [41]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the stainless - steel production decreased. The estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2671 million tons, a 6.47% month - on - month decrease and a 5.09% year - on - year decrease. The production schedule for January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a 1.83% month - on - month increase and a 16.27% year - on - year increase [43]. 2.3 Stainless Steel Consumption Situation - In December 2025, the overall stainless - steel consumption increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. The demand in the downstream pipe - making and profile sectors was affected by the traditional off - season, and the overall weak demand situation had not fundamentally changed [51]. 2.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream market was 1,005,136 tons, a 3.55% week - on - week decrease. The inventory showed four consecutive drops due to factors such as the increase in steel - mill prices and active merchant sales at the end of the month [59]. 2.5 Cost - In December, the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron continued to rise, and the stainless - steel cost continued to increase. The costs of different processes for smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel changed to varying degrees [67].