港股1月投资策略：春季行情徐徐启动

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to outperform the market, driven by a dual momentum of a weaker US dollar and improved domestic liquidity in the spring of 2026 [1][2] - The focus for 2026 is on two main themes: AI and PPI, which are anticipated to significantly influence market expectations and corporate profitability [1][2][51] - The report highlights that the AI sector remains a priority for 2026, with expectations for accelerated domestic semiconductor hardware production and increased AI application deployments, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology and Internet sectors [2][59] Group 2 - The report indicates that the recovery in the Hong Kong stock market has already begun, with significant gains observed during the New Year period, suggesting a positive shift in foreign capital inflow [2][73] - It notes that the performance of various sectors in December showed divergence, with materials and industrial sectors benefiting from the recovery, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer goods faced challenges [2][77][84] - The report mentions that the 2025 Hong Kong stock market had a remarkable performance, with the Hang Seng Index returning 27.8%, significantly outperforming A-shares and US stocks, and setting a record for southbound capital inflows [2][84][86] Group 3 - The report discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the US, highlighting a decrease in inflation pressure and a focus on employment data, which will influence future monetary policy decisions [9][12] - It points out that the US real estate market is currently weak, with a significant gap between sellers and buyers, which is expected to impact inflation and economic activity in 2026 [18][22][26] - The report also notes that corporate earnings per share (EPS) for listed companies continue to reach new highs, indicating strong underlying performance despite macroeconomic challenges [40][41] Group 4 - The report identifies that the domestic economic indicators in China have shown some decline, particularly in M1 and social financing, which may affect liquidity and investment sentiment [51][52] - It emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for technological advancements and industrial growth, particularly in AI and PPI sectors [59][61] - The report suggests that the PPI is expected to rise significantly in the first half of 2026, which will improve profitability for industrial enterprises and influence investment strategies [61][62]