铅品种呈现淡季更淡格局，价格或难有靓丽表现

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [6] - Option: Sell wide straddle [7] Core Viewpoints - At the end of the year, the supply-demand weakness of lead products is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non-ferrous sector, the demand in the off-season is even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 in January 2026 [6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Raw Material End - In December, the lead concentrate market continued the pattern of loose supply abroad and tight supply at home. The output of domestic lead concentrates was about 141,000 metal tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. The import volume in November was 123,000 physical tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The cumulative import for the whole year exceeded 1.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The processing fees continued to decline, and the profits of smelters were further compressed [1] - Due to the seasonal increase in the scrap volume at the end of the year, the recycling volume of waste batteries increased by about 8% month-on-month, but the tax-inclusive price remained firm at 9,950 yuan/ton. The loss of secondary lead enterprises narrowed to -350 yuan/ton, but the procurement was still cautious [1] Primary Lead Production and Import-Export - In December, the operating capacity of primary lead first decreased and then increased. SMM estimated that the output of electrolytic lead in December was 275,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,000 tons. The cumulative output for the whole year was about 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2] - In December, the import window of lead ingots continued to open, with about 15,000 tons flowing in from bonded area inventories. Exports remained sluggish, with only a small number of long-term orders to Southeast Asia being executed. The net import for the whole month was 13,000 tons, marking the third consecutive month of net imports [2] Secondary Lead Production and Import-Export - In December 2025, the secondary lead sector continued the cycle of losses leading to production cuts. SMM predicted that the output of secondary refined lead in December was only 112,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease for six consecutive months. The cumulative output for the whole year was about 1.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [3] - Due to intensified domestic losses, smelters increased the import of crude lead to reduce costs. The export of secondary alloy ingots was affected by anti-dumping duties in Southeast Asia, with only 4,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20%. The export of secondary lead-related products showed negative growth for the first time in the whole year [3] Consumption End - In December, the lead-acid battery market was even weaker in the off-season. The export of lead batteries in December was 17.5 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The cumulative export for the whole year was about 215 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, the first annual negative growth since 2015 [4] - The average price of 48V12Ah batteries in December was 268 yuan/group, a month-on-month decrease of 2%. Battery manufacturers generally adopted a strategy of reducing prices to maintain sales volume, but still could not offset the shrinking demand, and the finished product inventory rose to 45 days, the highest level in the same period in the past three years [4] Inventory End - In December, the inventory trends at home and abroad continued to diverge. As of December 27, the lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the end of November, a decrease of 16%. The LME inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 261,000 tons at the end of the month, a month-on-month increase of 11,000 tons [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 in January 2026 [6][7] - Option: Sell wide straddle [7] - Basis Strategy: It is recommended to continue holding mainstream deliverable products and sell far-month contracts, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm after the festival and the resumption of production progress of secondary lead [9]