人民币破7，是阶段反弹还是趋势变化

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the economic divergence between China and the US became more apparent. The US labor market continued to cool, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November and non - farm payroll growth slowing. The US stock market corrected at the end of the year. In contrast, China's economy remained stable, with the manufacturing PMI rising slightly and the technology sector performing strongly. The RMB exchange rate and asset prices showed positive resonance [1]. - The attractiveness of US dollar assets has been continuously weakening. The short - end interest rate in the US has been declining, and the risk - return ratio of US dollar assets has decreased. The RMB pricing range has shifted downwards, and the RMB is likely to be strong, have low volatility, and its center of gravity will gradually move down in the short term [3]. - In the context of a weak US dollar and changes in the domestic foreign exchange structure, the RMB will maintain a strong and low - volatility pattern in the short term, and the area around 7.00 will gradually become an important operating range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Economic Divergence between China and the US: In December, the US labor market cooled, with the November unemployment rate at 4.6% and non - farm payroll growth slowing. The government shutdown and tariff policies affected enterprises, leading to a year - end correction in the US stock market. In China, the economy was stable, the manufacturing PMI rose slightly in December, the technology sector was strong, and A - share risk appetite improved [1]. - Weakening of US Dollar Assets: The short - end interest rate in the US has been declining, and the market has priced in a faster rate - cut path in 2026. Fiscal expansion and US Treasury supply pressure limit the decline in long - term yields. The risk - return ratio of US dollar assets has decreased, and cross - border capital allocation is being adjusted [2]. - Changes in Foreign Exchange Supply: In 2025, China's foreign trade performance exceeded expectations. In November, exports grew by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports grew by about 1.9% year - on - year. The 12 - month rolling trade surplus was close to $1.2 trillion. The surplus expansion changed the domestic foreign exchange structure, with more foreign exchange remaining in the banking and corporate sectors [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate Breakthrough: At the end of December, the on - shore and off - shore RMB both broke through the 7.00 mark, breaking the 7.0 - 7.3 range that had lasted for more than a year. The RMB is likely to be strong, have low volatility, and its center of gravity will gradually move down in the short term, and 7.00 is becoming a new operating center [3]. Strategy - In the context of a weak US dollar and changes in the domestic foreign exchange structure, the RMB will maintain a strong and low - volatility pattern in the short term, and the area around 7.00 will gradually become an important operating range [4]