纯苯苯乙烯月报：纯苯需求维持弱势，苯乙烯仍等待开工回升-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene processing fees remain low, and domestic pure benzene operations are still sluggish despite the rising ethylene cracking operations. Overseas refined oil crack spreads may reach the bottom. Meanwhile, domestic pure benzene arrivals are rising from the bottom, downstream pick - up is weakening during the off - season, and port inventories are accumulating rapidly to high levels. Styrene maintenance recovery is slow, with operations increasing slower than expected. CPL operations continue at a low level, terminal consumption is weak, and PA6 and nylon loads are low. Aniline operations are at historical lows, dragged down by the year - on - year decline in refrigerator production schedules. Phenol operations have rebounded from a low level, but PC operations are still average. Adipic acid operations are acceptable. [7] - Styrene port inventories have changed little, and the original inventory replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled. This is due to Bohua's short - term maintenance and the boost from previous styrene export orders. Downstream pick - up still has some resilience, but downstream operations are seasonally low. During the off - season, EPS operations have rebounded slightly, PS operations have increased again after inventory reduction, and ABS operations have remained low due to continuous inventory pressure. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Strategy Analysis - Basis Status: In December, the basis of styrene in Jiangsu against the EB2602 contract declined in the first and middle of the month and then rose to around +80 yuan/ton in the second half of the month. The basis of pure benzene in Jiangsu against the BZ2603 contract further dropped to the range of - 100 to - 150 yuan/ton. [12] - Basis Analysis and Forecast: In the first and middle of December, the styrene basis weakened due to the anticipation of inventory accumulation. However, in the second half of the month, it rebounded because of improved styrene exports and Bohua's short - term maintenance. It is expected that in January, as styrene operations further recover and it is the downstream off - season, the basis may fall to the range of +30 to +60 yuan/ton, depending on the styrene resumption rate. The pure benzene basis was dragged down by the further accumulation of port inventories to a historical high in December. In January, the port inventory pressure will continue, and the basis is expected to remain weak at - 80 to - 130 yuan/ton. [12] - Basis Strategy: For styrene, conduct a reverse spread on EB2602 - EB2603 when the spread is high, but it is currently at a low level. For pure benzene, continue the reverse spread on BZ2603 - BZ2605. [12] 3.2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period - Not summarized as the content mainly lists the figures without further text descriptions 3.3. Styrene Supply - Production and Capacity: Styrene monthly output was 1,457,526 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.93%. The plant operation rate was 70.70% (+1.57%). New capacity includes Guoen Chemical's 200,000 - ton/year EB/PO plant, which was put into production in early December. Future planned capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 30,000 - ton/year C8 extraction plant in 2026 and Huajin Aramco's 700,000 - ton/year ethylbenzene dehydrogenation plant in Q4 2026. [1][23] - Import and Export: Monthly styrene imports were 18,836 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.00%, and exports were 23,688 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5780.29%. [1] 3.4. Styrene Downstream Demand - Output: EPS output was 380,286 tons (+12.52% y/y), PS output was 394,000 tons (+4.27% y/y), ABS output was 658,000 tons (+20.29% y/y), UPR output was 282,000 tons (-23.78% y/y), and SBS output was 103,386 tons (+20.90% y/y). [2] - Operation Rate: EPS operation rate was 43.64% (-8.92%), PS operation rate was 60.40% (+1.80%), ABS operation rate was 69.40% (-0.70%), UPR operation rate was 35.00% (-3.00%), and styrene - butadiene rubber operation rate was 80.80% (+1.42%). [2] - Terminal Demand: In December, the air - conditioning production schedule was still weak. From January to February 2026, the production schedule was flat year - on - year, with an increase in export plans, mainly dragged down by the high domestic sales base. [2] 3.5. Styrene Inventory - Port Inventory: Styrene inventory at East China ports was 138,800 tons (-500), and it did not further decrease in December, nor did it meet the pre - holiday inventory accumulation expectation. [3] - Factory Inventory: Styrene factory inventory was 171,760 tons (+800). Due to the slow recovery of styrene operations, factory inventory continued to decline. [3] 3.6. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - Production and Capacity: Pure benzene output was 1.936 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.09%. The operation rate was 75.18% (+0.29%). New capacity concentrated production period has passed. In the first quarter of 2026, attention should be paid to the production progress of BASF's 150,000 - ton/year cracked pure benzene, Shandong Ruilin's 280,000 - ton/year thermal hydro - demethylated pure benzene, and Tangshan Mudi's 400,000 - ton/year disproportionated pure benzene. [4] - Import and Port Inventory: Monthly pure benzene imports were 459,625 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. East China port inventory was 300,000 tons (+27,000). In December, port inventory pressure further increased to a historical high due to arrival pressure and low downstream pick - up. [3] 3.7. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - Output: Caprolactam output was 560,000 tons (-9.13% y/y), aniline output was 303,000 tons (-9.62% y/y), phenol output was 487,000 tons (-2.77% y/y), and adipic acid output was 207,000 tons (+14.78% y/y). [4] - Operation Rate: Caprolactam operation rate was 74.04% (-0.12%), phenol - acetone operation rate was 81.00% (+2.50), aniline operation rate was 62.98% (+1.63), and adipic acid operation rate was 63.60% (+4.00). [4][5] - Industrial Chain Conditions: In the CPL industrial chain, caprolactam operations continued to decline, CPL factory inventory decreased rapidly, but PA6 and nylon filament factory inventory pressure remained. In the phenol - acetone industrial chain, phenol operations rebounded, driven by the rebound of bisphenol A, but PC operations were average. In the aniline industrial chain, aniline operations fell to a historical low due to MDI operations, but MDI factory inventory pressure eased. In the adipic acid industrial chain, operations increased slightly in December. [5][6]