农产品月报：出栏节奏分歧，猪价先弱后强-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [4]. - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, the price showed a trend of being weak first and then strong in December. The supply and demand situation in January is complex, with both supply and demand increasing in the middle and late January, and attention should be paid to the price game. The supply in the first quarter of this year is relatively sufficient [1][2][3]. - In the egg market, the spot price fluctuated in the first half - month, declined rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand support during festivals is less than expected. The current egg market is in a seasonal consumption off - season with over - capacity [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: On December 31, 2025, the closing price of the live hog 2603 contract was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 545 yuan/ton from the previous month, a rise of 4.84% [1]. - Spot: The ex - ternary live hog prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were 11.67 yuan/kg, 11.90 yuan/kg, and 11.94 yuan/kg respectively. The prices in Henan and Jiangsu decreased slightly from the previous month, while that in Sichuan increased. The spot basis in different regions changed accordingly [1]. - Supply: In November, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 0.37% month - on - month; the elimination volume increased. The inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. In December, the average slaughter weight of live hogs increased slightly [2]. - Demand: In December, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 39.44%, an increase of 5.32 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Inventory: In December, the frozen product storage capacity rate of domestic key slaughter enterprises was 17.91%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [2]. Market Analysis - In December, the pig price was weak in the first half and strong in the second half. The supply rhythm of large - scale enterprises was different in the first and second half of the month. The consumption expectation during the Winter Solstice and curing season supported the price. The epidemic situation affected the slaughter structure, but the overall impact on price was controllable. The demand in December was in the seasonal peak, but the fresh sales rate was lower than last year, and the frozen product inventory digestion was not as expected [2][3]. - In January, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises is not large in the first half, and the tight supply of large hogs may be alleviated in the second half. The demand has pre - festival stocking support, but it is difficult to form a concentrated demand. The supply in the first quarter is relatively sufficient [3]. Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is neutral [4]. Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg futures main 2603 contract last month was 2,951 yuan/500 kg, a decrease of 160 yuan from the previous month, a decline of 5.14% [4]. - Spot: The egg spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong increased from the previous month, and the spot basis also changed accordingly [4]. - Supply: In December, the inventory of laying hens decreased by 0.92% month - on - month, and the elimination volume of old hens increased. The average elimination age decreased [4]. - Demand: The arrival volume in Beijing and Guangdong markets increased. The production - link and circulation - link inventories decreased [4]. Market Analysis - The egg spot price fluctuated in the first half of the month, declined rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The supply pressure decreased but was still at a high level. The demand support during festivals was less than expected, and the egg market was in a seasonal consumption off - season with over - capacity [5]. Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]. Table 1: Breeding Sector Basis - The current basis situation shows different changes in different regions for live hogs and eggs. The basis is expected to strengthen, and the basis strategy suggests that the breeding sector is in a situation of oversupply, and the seasonal consumption support has a stronger boosting effect on live hogs than on eggs. It is recommended to mainly adopt the reverse spread strategy [8].